Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for June 17 (Sometimes Stats Lie)
By Josh Yourish
Tampa Bay is reeling coming into this three-game weekend series in Baltimore. The Rays have lost five of their last six and last night, the Yankees finished off the sweep with a walk-off home run from Anthony Rizzo. Tampa Bay is in danger of falling into fourth place in the AL East.
Even in fourth place, they would have some clearance from the Orioles in the basement of the division at 28-37. They have fared better at home with a 15-15 record and just split a four game set with Toronto. Baltimore has Dean Kremer making his third start of the year.
Tampa Bay goes with Shane Baz, who was rocked in his first start of the season giving up five runs in 2.1 innings.
Odds are available in the WynnBET Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Orioles +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline
- Rays -151
- Orioles +141
Total
8.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)
Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Shane Baz has to wear a 19.29 ERA into his second start of the year, but showed in 2021 that he has the stuff to be a good pitcher in the league. For whatever reason, his fastball did not play coming off of his injury. It was down a full mile per hour, had a significantly lower spin rate, a whiff rate of 10%, down from 30% last year, and an expected slugging percentage of 1.764.
In Tampa’s last four games they have only managed four runs and Dean Kremer is tasked with keeping them down. Kremer has made two starts on the season, both in June, and has been fairly successful. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.42 FIP), but only strikes out 4.8 batters per nine and walks almost three. Meanwhile in the largest sample we have on Shane Baz from a year ago, he strikes out 12.2 per nine and only walks two.
I think we trust the indicators on this one. Those stats tell me to throw out Baz’s first start and to not trust Kremer’s sub four ERA.
Pick: Rays ML -151
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