Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 28 (Trust Baltimore as Home Favorite)

Baltimore Orioles third baseman Ramon Urias.
Baltimore Orioles third baseman Ramon Urias. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles are out of last place in the AL East and looking to make a run at a wild card spot this season. 

They’ll take on the Tampa Bay Rays in Baltimore on Thursday, who are currently 12.5 games out of the division lead in the AL East. 

Right Jordan Lyles (6-8, 4.79 ERA) will get the ball for Baltimore against lefty Ryan Tarbrough (0-5, 5.61 ERA). Tampa Bay has used Yarbrough as an opener this year, but he’s capable of giving them length into the fifth or even sixth inning. 

The O’s are sitting right at .500, but they are one of the league’s best home teams. Can they use that to get to 50 wins before the end of July?

Here are the odds from WynnBET for this matchup: 

Rays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rays: +1.5 (-200)
  • Orioles: -1.5 (+165)


  • Rays: +107
  • Orioles: -117


  • 9 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

I’m rolling with the Orioles in this spot, and there are a few reasons why. 

First, let’s start with the Baltimore side. Sure, Lyles has been far from lights out this season, but the O’s have one of the league’s best bullpens (third in bullpen ERA At 3.04).

Not only that, but the Orioles bats have come alive as of late, ranking 10th in OPS and 15th in runs scored over the last 15 days. That’s a huge advantage over Tampa, who is struggling as a whole at the plate, ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS for the season. 

The Orioles are the best run line team in the league and the best run line team at home, which gives me a lot of confidence in them to simply just win this game. 

Then, when you look at Yarbrough’s numbers, you know this is an auto-bet on Baltimore. The Rays have lost the last nine games Yarbrough has appeared in, and they haven’t won a start by him since May 3 against the Oakland Athletics. 

Take the O’s and don’t look back. 

Lean: Orioles ML (-117)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.