Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 27 (Orioles Win Again as Home Underdogs)
By Joe Summers
Tampa Bay brings a four-game losing streak into tonight's contest with Baltimore after their bullpen blew another late lead. The Rays are now a disastrous 1-7 in their last eight as road favorites, and send the uninspiring Drew Rasmussen to the mound to take on Tyler Wells.
Rasmussen does have a 2.29 ERA this month, but he's been poor on the road and his underlying metrics suggest he's been quite lucky this year.
Wells, on the other hand, held his opponent to three runs or fewer in 17 of his 19 starts on the season. The Orioles have covered the run line in 10 consecutive outings behind him and won eight outright.
Can Baltimore continue to impress as underdogs or will Tampa Bay finally snap their slump?
To help find the value in this Rays vs Orioles matchup, here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Rays vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Rays -1.5 (+145)
- Orioles +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline:
- Rays: -112
- Orioles: +102
Total:
- 8.0 (Over -110/Under -110)
Rays vs Orioles Prediction and Pick
Negative regression is coming for Drew Rasmussen. He's got a 4.21 expected ERA but just a 3.13 actual ERA, ranking in just the 26th percentile in expected batting average. In five of his last six starts, Rasmussen finished with a worse expected ERA than actual ERA, implying he's on quite a stretch of good fortune.
That luck should turn against him today, facing an Orioles lineup that ranks seventh in OPS against right-handed pitchers at home this month. Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven as a home underdog, while the Rays are dreadful on the road.
Another nice crowd at Camden Yards is welcomed with a strike 'em out, throw 'em out to end the first inning, courtesy of Tyler Wells and Adley Rutschman: pic.twitter.com/5NvLNIB3sB
— Zachary Silver (@zachsilver) July 22, 2022
Tyler Wells is one of my favorite pitchers to back in any situation. He's got a strong 3.66 expected ERA and the Orioles are 8-2 in his last 10 starts, covering the run line in every game.
Until Tampa Bay shows me it can compete as a road favorite, I'm willing to blindly fade them in this spot moving forward. But when the stars align against one of my favorite teams and pitchers to back as a home underdog, I'm not one to question fate.
Back the Orioles at plus money to extend the Rays' misery and give Wells another win.
Pick: Orioles (+102)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.