Rays vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Monday, July 17 (Regression on the Mound)
By Josh Yourish
All season long it’s been the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers pacing the rest of the American League. Now, the Orioles have entered that conversation and leapfrogged Texas for the second best record in the AL, but that doesn’t dull the excitement for another three-game set between the Rays and Rangers. Last time they met the Rangers took two of three and now Texas enters this series at 55-39 against the 60-36 Rays.
The Rays took two of three from the Royals this past weekend, but they held their big gun back for this matchup. Shane McClanahan will take the mound in Game 1 against Dane Dunning. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA in 17 starts and Dunning is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts with eight relief appearances.
With their ace on the mound, the Rays are favorites down in Texas for Game 1.
Rays vs. Rangers odds, run line and total
Rays vs. Rangers prediction and pick
On paper this looks like a classic pitcher’s duel, but that’s not going to be the case at all. Shane McClanahan has been great for two years now, so it’s hard to say this, but the first halves put together by both pitchers look to be entirely unsustainable.
First, McClanahan has a 3.86 FIP and hasn’t made it past the fourth inning in either of his last two starts. He has an even worse 3.98 expected ERA and allows an expected slugging of .394 which is 54th percentile in baseball. He tosses too many walks, 29th percentile in walk rate, and too many hard hit balls, 22nd percentile in barrel rate. He is going to regress in the second half and I think it continues today because it started in those last two outings before the break.
Dunning, on the other side, is in an even worse spot. His FIP is 3.83 and his xERA is 4.73 which is 26th percentile of all pitchers. Despite his 2.84 ERA he is in the bottom 10% of the league in strikeout rate, whiff rate, fastball velocity, and curveball spin. He’s had a smaller sample as a starter, but his last start was poor and regression is going to hit like a freight train soon, no pitcher can survive that way. He has the profile of a ground ball pitcher, but has the second lowest ground ball rate of his career and is barely above league average.
Tampa’s offense hasn’t been the same in the summer as it was in the Spring and the Rangers have cooled considerably as well, but I’m backing offense in this one and I expect to fade these pitchers for most of the second half.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change