Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 15 (Cole's Struggles vs. Tampa Bay Make Him Overvalued)
By Reed Wallach
Can Gerrit Cole find his All-Star form?
The New York Yankees ace has been anything but in his four starts since the break, pitching to a 5.04 ERA as the struggling club heads home to face the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays are in the mix for the AL Wild Card race and are looking to pounce on the Bronx Bombers while they are down and keep pace in a heated postseason race.
Here are the odds for Monday's series opener from consensus sportsbooks:
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Total
Run Line:
- Rays: +1.5 (-105)
- Yankees: -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline:
- Rays: +200
- Yankees: -240
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Cole has been outstanding against the Rays this season, pitching to an ERA below one in three starts against Tampa Bay, but that is not the norm for his career. He has a 3.66 ERA against the Rays in in 14 starts, posting a 2-6 record in those outings.
Tampa Bay's offense has not been as stout as it has been in the past, but this is a team that has had Cole's number, and this is the worst he has looked this season. While he is off a strong start against the Mariners, pitching seven shutout innings, but overall he has allowed three, five and six earned runs in the other four starts. Cole has been hard hit and I can't justify him as this big of a favorite with the Yankees offense supporting him.
New York has been hit by the injury bug of late and the lineup isn't as deep as it has been all year. Overall, the teem is below league average in wRC+ since the start of August despite the MVP efforts of Aaron Judge, resulting in the teams slide.
The American League contenders since the All-Star break:
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 14, 2022
Houston Astros:16-9
Cleveland Guardians: 15-9
Baltimore Orioles: 13-9
Chicago White Sox: 13-10
Toronto Blue Jays: 11-9
Seattle Mariners: 11-12
TB Rays: 9-12
Minnesota Twins: 8-11
Boston Red Sox: 8-14
NY Yankees: 8-14
The Rays will likely have a bullpen game on Monday, the seventh best unit in terms of ERA this season, and should be able to navigate this banged up Yankees lineup around Judge.
I'll take a stab on Tampa Bay as big underdogs with Cole's shaky form and the lineups inability to string together hits over the past few weeks.
LEAN: Rays ML +200
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