RBC Heritage Picks and Betting Preview (Target Accuracy, Not Distance, At Harbour Town Golf Links)
The first major tournament of the year is in the books. Scottie Scheffler has won the Green Jacket for his first major victory of his career.
The PGA Tour now heads to South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links.
Stewart Cink will enter the event as the defending champion, having won it three times in his career. The field will boast a relatively strong field for an event the week after a major, including Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, and Cameron Smith.
Let's take a look at the top 10 odds to win via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Odds to Win the RBC Heritage
- Justin Thomas +1200
- Collin Morikawa +1200
- Cameron Smith +1400
- Dustin Johnson +1600
- Patrick Cantlay +1600
- Shane Lowry +2000
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200
- Corey Conners +2200
- Daniel Berger +2500
- Webb Simpson +2800
How to Handicap Harbour Town Golf Links
This is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour's schedule where being a big bomber is arguably a detriment, and having less distance off the tee is actually an advantage. Look no further than the past winners for proof of this. Stewart Cink, Webb Simpson, CT Pan, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, the list goes on and on. Short, accurate, and consistent hitters are the types of golfers that succeed here.
An important factor that you have to take into account at this course is that the greens are tiny, averaging 3,700 square feat. That's 2,900 square feet smaller than the average green on the PGA Tour. The fairways are also lined with trees, which means hitting it down the middle is even more important than usual.
Ball striking, accuracy, and scrambling ability is the name of the game at this track.
5 Key Stats for the RBC Heritage
- Driving Accuracy
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green
- Scrambling %
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Picks to Win the RBC Heritage
Collin Morikawa +1400
It's a chalky pick, but I think it's a right one. He finished the Masters with a fantastic final round, going five-under par, so I'm hoping he can carry that momentum into this week.
A big reason why I like Morikawa over the likes of Justin Thomas, is his driving accuracy. You have to be accurate off the tee at Harbour Town, and Morikawa ranks ninth on the Tour in driving accuracy. His scrambling is a small concern of mine, but he should be able to hit enough greens that it doesn't hurt him too much. I think this is a great course for him to get his first win of the season, and he finished seventh here last season.
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
At this stage, I'm committed to betting on Matt Fitzpatrick util he wins an event, because it still seems like it's a matter of when as opposed to if. Not only that, but this course fits his style considering his accuracy off the tee is much better than his distance. He ranks 139th in driving distance, but 40th in driving accuracy.
He's also third in scrambling percentage, so when he misses a green, he should have no issue saving par. Finally, he has a great course history here, with three top 20 finishes in his last four starts, including a fourth place finish last year.
Daniel Berger +2500
Daniel Berger is flying under the radar heading into this event, but his course history alone makes him a strong play. He finished third here in 2020, and followed it up with a 13th place finish last year. It makes sense, considering his biggest weakness, distance off the tee, is nullified at this course.
He's first on Tour in sand save percentage and eighth in scrambling, which will prove invaluable at Harbour Town. There's no part of his game that you could point to as a weakness this week. He might just present the best betting value on the board.
Want even more picks? Check out FanSided's Cody Williams' betting preview and best bets.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.