Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 1 (Nathan Eovaldi Perfect Match for Houston)

Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez.
Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

We have a rematch of the 2021 ALCS, but both teams do not seem destined to head back there in 2022. Sure Houston is rolling and is easily the second best team in the AL behind the New York Yankees, but Boston is struggling and about to get worse at the deadline. 

The Red Sox find themselves in last place in the AL East and have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for Monday night’s matchup in Houston. Luis Garcia gets the start for the Astros. 

You can find odds for this matchup and every game on the MLB slate at WynnBET Sportbook

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
  • Astros -1.5 (+115)


  • Red Sox +155
  • Astros -180


  • 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Regression has finally come for Nathan Eovaldi. He has been a flat out bad pitcher in 2022, but his ERA was disguising it. He has battled some injury, but his last start in June on June 8, his ERA was 3.16, but his fielding independent pitching was a staggering 4.54. Now his ERA has caught up at 4.43 and his FIP is 4.59. 

Eovaldi isn’t just getting hit, he is getting hit hard. His expected slugging is .454 and puts him in the 14th percentile. His barrel percentage is in the 12th percentile and his hard hit rate is in the ninth. 

I can’t imagine that is a recipe for success against a Houston team that hits the ball hard. The Astros are third in the league in home runs and fifth in slugging percentage. They are led by Yordan Alvarez who is in the top 1% of the league in expected slugging, hard hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected batting average. 

Alvarez should have a huge day and lead the Astros against the sinking ship that is the Boston Red Sox. 

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+115)

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