Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 3 (Should Cubs Be Favored?)

Keegan Thompson is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA at home this year
Keegan Thompson is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA at home this year / Justin Casterline/GettyImages

The 32-46 Chicago Cubs have won four straight as they conclude a three-game series with the 43-35 Boston Red Sox today at 2:20 p.m. EST.

Keegan Thompson hopes to continue the Cubs' winning streak, bringing a 2.13 ERA at home into the contest. He's thrown at least six innings in three consecutive outings and seems to be settling into his starting role.

Boston turns to Connor Seabold after a disastrous first start against Toronto in which he allowed seven runs in just four innings. Seabold was dominant in the minor leagues this year, so perhaps an easier matchup will allow him to return to his strong form.

Can Seabold get the Red Sox back on track or will Chicago's winning ways continue behind Thompson?

To answer that question, let's first dive into the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Red Sox vs Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-165)


  • Red Sox: -110
  • Cubs: +100


  • 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction and Pick

Keegan Thompson doesn't seem to have much of a middle ground. He's either going to dazzle, like he did in allowing just six hits and one run over two starts two weeks ago, or he's going to melt and surrender 10 runs in 3.2 innings like he did in the two starts before that.

But the guy has excellent stuff either way. He's been dominant at home, amassing a 4-1 record and 2.13 ERA, and likely Chicago's most consistent pitcher as they're 6-3 in his starts.

Thompson is in for a stiff test against a powerful Red Sox lineup that's better on the road than at home. Though at the least, he's in better shape than Connor Seabold, who allowed three home runs to the Blue Jays in his lone start.

The Cubs have the fifth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and should stay hot against the volatile Seabold. Over its last 10 games, Chicago is 7-3 while averaging 6.8 runs per contest. The Cubs have won four of five as home underdogs, though the Red Sox have won eight of 10 as road favorites themselves.

I'm inclined to back Thompson at home, but I also favor the over. With two strong lineups, weak bullpens and inconsistent starters, we should see some runs. The over is 7-3-1 in Boston's last 11 as road favorites and 3-1 over the Cubs' last four overall.

Until Seabold proves he can be trusted at the major league level, I'll be targeting the over in his starts as Boston's powerful lineup can't be held down for long.

Pick: Cubs (+100) and Over 8.5 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.