Red Sox vs. Mariners Prediction: Boston Looking to Break Tie in Wild Card Standings

The race for the two American League wild card spots is on, and it’s shaping up to be an electric finish.

The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays are in a three-way tie for the two wild card spots, the Seattle Mariners are three games back and the Oakland Athletics are 3.5 games back.

The Red Sox will take on the Mariners in the final matchup for a three-game series today. Each team has won one game heading into the series finale.

Tanner Houck (3.54 ERA) gets the start for the Red Sox. He’ll face Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who enters the start with a 4.03 ERA.

WynnBET has the Red Sox set as -130 road favorites, and the Mariners come in as +110 home underdogs. The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs.

Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction and Pick

I’m going to back the road chalk in this one and take the Red Sox at -130 on the moneyline. Their offense has been far superior in recent history as they rank 2nd in OPS (.810) dating back to August 1st, while the Mariners rank all the way down at 25th (.690) during that stretch.

The Mariners are also being overvalued in this spot and likely will be for the rest of the season. They will be one of my top teams to fade down the stretch. Despite being in the thick of the wild card race with a 78-67 record, Seattle has a total run differential of -60. That’s worse than the Detroit Tigers (-56) whose record sits at 69-76.

The Mariners winning record comes from the fact that they rank fourth in “close game win percentage”, meaning they end up on the right side of the majority of close games they play in. While that can certainly be a sign of a team that performs well in clutch scenarios, it’s also generally not very sustainable over a long period of time.

Give me the BoSox tonight at -130.

Download the WynnBET app now to make your pick.