The Baltimore Orioles are fantastic at home, winning 16 of 21, as they host the Boston Red Sox this afternoon at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Kyle Bradish gets the start for Baltimore after allowing three runs or fewer in four straight outings. He doesn't last deep into games though, so he still has a 4.05 ERA in that stretch. Regardless, the Orioles have four straight wins behind him.
Boston turns to Michael Wacha in his second start since returning from injury. Wacha dominated the Yankees over seven shutout innings last week and has a sparkling 7-1 record with a 2.44 ERA on the year.
Can Wacha maintain his hot streak or will Baltimore pick up a fifth straight win behind Bradish?
Let's take a peak at the odds from consensus sportsbooks to help find the value in this Red Sox vs Orioles matchup:
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
- Red Sox: -1.5 (+145)
- Orioles: +1.5 (-170)
- Red Sox: -120
- Orioles: +100
- Total: 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction and Pick
Michael Wacha is quite possibly MLB's luckiest pitcher. He's got a 2.44 ERA, but his 4.42 expected ERA is more representative of his performance. While Wacha was exceptional against the Yankees in his return, New York is suddenly a horrific offense and I don't know how much we can read into that game.
One look at Wacha's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile tells you he's not as good as his ERA suggests:
Baltimore should make Wacha pay for his mistakes, of which I expect several. But Kyle Bradish has even worse metrics than Wacha does. Take a look at Bradish's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and you'll see what I mean:
Oof, that's gross. I don't feel comfortable trusting Bradish, even against Boston's disappointing lineup. Instead, I'll look to the total for value.
The over is 8-1 in Bradish's last nine starts and 5-1-1 in Boston's last seven games on the road. Between a terrible Red Sox bullpen and two mediocre starting pitchers, I feel comfortable projecting a healthy number of runs.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.