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Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Friday, April 29 (Fade These Struggling Offenses in Baltimore)

By Matt De Saro

Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels / John McCoy/GettyImages
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Friday brings us a showdown between two of the worst teams in the AL East.

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox occupy the bottom two spots in the division as they kick off a three-game series at Camden Yards.

The Red Sox have been one of the bigger surprises this season. Many expected them to compete with the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays for the division title. But, Boston has a losing record and can’t seem to get it together. They're also getting bullied by the three aforementioned teams in division play. In 12 games against AL East opponents, the Red Sox are just 4-8 overall. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Red Sox: -1.5 (+115
  • Orioles: +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline:

  • Red Sox -145
  • Orioles +125

Total:

  • 9 (Over +100/Under -120)

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Red Sox may be struggling with AL East opponents, but the Orioles have taken it up a notch. The O’s opened the season by getting swept by the Rays in three games. The Yankees have taken three of five from Baltimore as well. 

So, what happens when two struggling teams clash? Well, somebody is going to walk away with a win. But I am not going to focus on picking a side in this game. I think the value today is on the total. 

While both teams stink right now, tonight’s starters look solid through the first few weeks. Spenser Watkins gets the nod for Baltimore while Rich Hill toes the rubber for Boston. Watkins is having a better overall season with a 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He did get beat up a bit by the Angels on Saturday but avoided a total meltdown. Watkins gave up two runs on three hits over five innings. But, two of those three hits were home runs. Mistakes happen and I am not too worried about the long balls. He has held teams to under two runs in all three of his 2022 starts. 

Hill is a bit more of a question mark. He pitched very poorly in his first two starts of the year, combining for seven runs in eight innings. But, he rebounded on Sunday against the Rays with four scoreless innings. He did walk three and strike out just one. But, Hill kept the Rays off the board and that is what this job is all about. He'll enjoy a game against the 26th-ranked team in terms of batting average tonight. The Orioles don’t do anything well on offense and Hill could have a day. 

I’m willing to bet that these two pitchers will continue to improve on Friday. Both offenses are in the bottom half of most metrics and I don’t have faith in either offense to put many runs on the board. 

Pick: UNDER 9 (-120)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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