Red Sox vs. Rangers Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 15 (Don't Overreact to Boston's Recent Success)

After outscoring Texas by a combined 18-4 in the first two games of the series, the 13-20 Boston Red Sox hope to wrap up a sweep of the 13-19 Rangers today at 2:35 PM EST.

The Red Sox have now won three of four after dropping five straight, and send Austin Davis to the hill in this one. Davis serves as an opener for a bullpen day for Boston and has a 2.70 ERA in 14 appearances.

Martin Perez gets the nod for the Rangers and he's been a bright spot for a Texas club lacking many of those. He's surrendered just two earned runs over his last four starts totaling 26.1 innings.

Can Perez and the Rangers salvage a win to close this series or will Boston finish off the sweep?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find some value in this Red Sox vs Rangers matchup:

Red Sox vs Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Red Sox +1.5 (-200)
• Rangers -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

• Red Sox: +105
• Rangers: -115

Total:

• 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction and Pick

This line is a massive overreaction to Boston's offensive onslaught the last few days. Recency bias is a dangerous thing, and if you're not careful you may do something crazy. For example? Making the Rangers only a -115 favorite today.

Martin Perez is enjoying a career year after signing a one-year, $4 million deal with Texas in the offseason. He has a 0.69 ERA over his last four starts and gets to face a Red Sox lineup that ranks 30th in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers. There's only 30 teams, so that's pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

The Rangers closed as a favorite in each of the first two games of the series despite likely having the worse pitcher on the mound. Now they're barely a favorite with Perez on the mound?

Hey, one person's bad line is another person's Sunday payday, so I won't complain. Boston's bullpen is 21st league-wide in ERA and while Texas' offense has struggled mightily of late, they're in a great spot to put some runs on the board today.

I'll back the Rangers to get back in the win column. We zig when others zag, and there's no reason to overreact to the Red Sox scoring a bunch the last few days. They've been one of the worst offenses in baseball all season and that evidence is far more convincing than a couple games of success.

Pick: Rangers (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.