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Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 7 (Can Brad Keller Bounce Back?)

By Joe Summers

Brad Keller got shelled in his last start but should find success against a struggling Boston lineup today
Brad Keller got shelled in his last start but should find success against a struggling Boston lineup today / Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
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The Kansas City Royals have three straight wins as home underdogs and hope for a decisive series win over the Boston Red Sox this afternoon with Brad Keller taking on Kutter Crawford.

Keller got rocked by the Chicago White Sox in his last start, giving up 13 hits and eight runs over 5.2 innings but has been much better at home, amassing a 3.97 ERA over 11 starts.

Crawford found a groove in July and surrendered three runs or less in each of his last six starts. He's coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Houston Astros to one run over six strong innings.

Can Boston escape with a series split or will Keller rebound after last week's rough performance?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find the value in this Red Sox vs Royals matchup:

Red Sox vs Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Red Sox -1.5 (+112)
  • Royals +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline:

  • Red Sox: -135
  • Royals: +125

Total:

  • 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Red Sox vs Royals Prediction and Pick

Both pitchers should find success in this contest and I see a pair of bets with value.

Chicago shellacked Brad Keller in his last start, but he's shown an ability to bounce back from poor starts. His 3.99 expected ERA is a strong mark and the Red Sox struggle against his most thrown pitch: the slider.

With Boston's lineup ranking 25th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks, I expect a bounce-back performance from Keller.

But Kutter Crawford is impressing me. He's got a 3.91 expected ERA and lowered his ERA each month of the season, culminating in a 2.57 ERA in July. Kansas City's offense hasn't been much better than Boston's recently, so I like the under to hit for a fourth straight start by Crawford.

That being said, I like the plus odds on the Royals as home underdogs as well. They've won three straight in this spot while the Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six as road favorites.

Back Kansas City in a low-scoring affair as both pitchers have strong performances. In a game I see closer to a coin-flip though, I have to back the hotter team at home.

Pick: Royals (+125) and Under 9.5 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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