Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 29 (Boston's Pitching Is Too Volatile)
By Peter Dewey
The Minnesota Twins are hot, winning three straight games and eyeing the top spot in the AL Central once again heading into their matchup with the Boston Red Sox on Monday.
Boston is four games under .500 and is all but out of the playoff race in the American League, barring a late-season run.
Youngster Brayan Bello (0-3, 7.36 ERA) is looking to build on his best start of his career in Boston in this matchup. He’ll face veteran Dylan Bundy (7-6, 4.56 ERA) , who has quietly put together a solid stretch for Minnesota.
Let’s jump into the odds for this game from WynnBET:
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total
Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Dylan Bundy was a fade candidate early in the 2022 season, but he’s been solid since mid-June, posting a 3.59 ERA over his last 12 starts. The Twins are just 6-6 in those games, but it’s a massive upgrade from what Bundy was doing early in the season.
Bello returned to Boston’s rotation on Aug. 24, tossing five innings of two-run ball, but he’s been rather inconsistent as a rookie. However, if you’re looking for a positive sign, Bello’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is just 3.03 this season, which is significantly better than his ERA.
Boston’s pitching has been a mess lately, ranking dead last in team ERA over the last 15 days. It’s cost a solid offensive performance, as the Red Sox are fifth in OPS over the last 15 days.
Minnesota has been significantly better on the mound over this stretch, ranking fifth in baseball with a 2.64 ERA. Although there is potential with Bello, I don’t trust him and a shaky Boston bullpen to upset the Twins.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.