Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 30 (Fade Both Starters in Minnesota)
By Peter Dewey
The Minnesota Twins picked up their fourth straight win on Monday night, coming from behind to beat the Boston Red Sox at Target Field.
Minnesota is now just 1.5 games back of the AL Central lead heading into Tuesday’s game with this reeling Boston roster. The Red Sox have youngster Kutter Crawford (3-5, 5.30 ERA) on the mound against veteran Chris Archer (2-7, 4.34 ERA).
Archer has taken a step back over his last seven starts, but Crawford hasn’t been great either, allowing 21 hits over his last 8.1 innings.
Let’s jump into the odds from WynnBET for this game:
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total
Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Who wants to fade some starting pitchers today?
That’s the play I’m on for this Twins-Red Sox matchup, as Archer and Crawford have been extremely uninspiring over the last month-plus.
Archer has struggled since returning to the rotation in mid-July with a 6.90 ERA in seven starts, and he’s allowed at least two runs in all but one of those outings, which gives us a nice baseline to go OVER the first five innings total.
Crawford was pitching well for Boston, but he’s allowed 21 hits and 13 runs in his last two starts (8.1 innings pitched). In the month of August, Crawford’s ERA sits at 7.46, and he has just two outings with less than two runs allowed dating back to July 14.
Given the fact that Boston has the worst team ERA in baseball over the last two weeks, this feels like an easy spot to back the OVER between two struggling starters.
LEAN: First Five Innings OVER 4.5 Runs (-128)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.