Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 31 (Trust Joe Ryan at Home)
By Joe Summers
Winners of five straight, the Minnesota Twins are doing their best to keep pace in the AL Central with the Cleveland Guardians. They sit 1.5-games back in the tightest remaining division race and send Joe Ryan to the mound to close a critical series with the Boston Red Sox.
Ryan has a 2.69 ERA at home as the Twins are 6-1 in his last seven starts at Target Field. He's walked three batters in each of his previous two outings, though he's done a great job limiting hard contact.
Michael Wacha gets the call for Boston with a sparkling 9-1 record and 2.53 ERA on the season. He's got a 1.93 ERA in August, but did surrender four runs to the Tampa Bay Rays in his last appearance.
Can Minnesota earn the sweep or will Boston play spoiler? Let's check out the odds for the all-important matchup:
Red Sox vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction and Pick
Michael Wacha remains MLB's luckiest starter and his penance is coming. His 2.53 actual ERA is a spectacular number, but his 4.42 expected ERA is more in line with what he's brought to the table.
In his last three road starts, Wacha posted an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.06 at Baltimore, 6.77 at Toronto, and 5.16 at Seattle. Those are terrible numbers, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile suggests he's due for negative regression as well:
Minnesota's lineup is hot right now, averaging nearly seven runs per game in its last five contests. With Boston no longer part of the playoff picture and the Twins stuck in a battle, I expect the home club to pull through for the critical victory.
Back Ryan to pick up another home victory as Minnesota improves to 11-3 in its last 14 games as home favorites.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.