Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for Friday, July 15 (Eovaldi's Return Gives Multiple Bets Value)

Nathan Eovaldi returns from the Injured List to make his first start in over a month
Nathan Eovaldi returns from the Injured List to make his first start in over a month / Rob Leiter/GettyImages

The most storied rivalry in MLB history now finds two struggling teams in need of a win squaring off at Yankee Stadium.

Nathan Eovaldi looks to snap a four-game losing streak for the Boston Red Sox and he seems the perfect man for the job. He's making his first start in over a month due to injury, but before he got hurt he had a 1.38 ERA over his last four outings, all Boston wins.

New York turns to Jordan Montgomery, who has remained steady yet unspectacular all year. His 4.11 expected ERA does imply he's been lucky to amass a 3.19 actual ERA, though the Yankees have won five straight at home behind him.

Which AL East squad has the upper hand? Will Boston notch a third straight win against New York or will Montgomery maintain his home dominance?

To find the value in this Red Sox vs Yankees showdown, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
  • Yankees -1.5 (+112)


  • Red Sox: +150
  • Yankees: -160


  • 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction and Pick

The Red Sox have fallen off a bit recently, losing eight of 10 and falling behind in the AL Wild Card race. But I'm not so sure they should be +150 underdogs to the Yankees with this pitching matchup.

Nathan Eovaldi was on a tear before he got hurt just over a month ago. He'd limited his opponent to three runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts, including compiling a 1.38 ERA over his last four. His 3.18 expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is an excellent mark, while the powerful Yankees have lost four of five.

I haven't been that impressed by Jordan Montgomery recently either and Boston just faced him last week. The Red Sox have the fifth-highest OPS against left-handed pitchers this season and should find success.

New York should be favored, but I'd make it closer to a pick-'em than the current odds indicate.

Thus, I'll back Boston. But I also like the over here. With Eovaldi returning from injury, he'll likely have a short leash. And Montgomery didn't make it through the sixth inning in either of his last two outings.

The over is 6-1 in the Yankees' last seven games and 6-2 in Boston's last eight. As a cherry on top, it's 8-2 in Montgomery's previous 10 starts. Give me the Red Sox to pull out a high-scoring victory at the friendliest home run park in MLB.

Pick: Red Sox (+150) and Over 8.0 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.