Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 20 (Ryu's Struggles Give Reds Value)

The 11-26 Cincinnati Reds have won two straight as they head to Toronto to take on the 20-18 Blue Jays tonight at 7:07 PM EST.

Cincinnati has turned things around after a historically poor start to the season, going 8-4 over their last dozen contests. They'll send Luis Castillo to the mound today and he's been middling thus far. In two starts, Castillo has allowed six runs in 9.2 innings, but he's hoping to tap back into the strong form he displayed at the end of 2021.

Toronto will counter with Hyun Jin Ryu, who is also trying to find his footing after a rough few starts. He has a 9.00 ERA through 12 innings but has extremely concerning underlying metrics.

Can the Reds stay hot and pick up the upset victory or will the Blue Jays win their third game in four tries? Perhaps the total has value we should look to instead of a side?

To answer those questions, let's check out the odds from WynnBET to find value ahead of this Reds vs Blue Jays series opening matchup:

Reds vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds +1.5 (-140)
• Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline:

• Reds: +148
• Blue Jays: -158

Total:

• 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Reds vs Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

This is a good ol'-fashioned garbage matchup. We've got two bad pitchers against two bad lineups, so whose bad will be worse?

Cincinnati's lineup has been terrible against left-handed pitchers. They're dead last in OPS against southpaws but have improved a bit in May, and Hyun Jin Ryu's pitching profile from Baseball Savant suggests he's been among the worst starters in baseball this year:

Oof, that's not good. And the Reds' lineup really has come alive recently. In their last dozen games, a stretch in which they're 8-4, they're averaging 5.9 runs per game. That mark would lead the league over the course of the season, and is a huge step-up from the disastrous plate appearances they were putting together early on.

Toronto's lineup is going in the opposite direction. The Blue Jays are 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers in May and they're averaging just three runs per game over their last 10 contests. It's no surprise, then, that they're 3-7 over that stretch and the under has hit in five straight games.

But the wind is blowing straight out to center field today and I think these lineups will do some damage. Both bullpens are terrible and each starter is struggling. In two home starts this year, Ryu has a 13.50 ERA and hasn't made it past the fourth inning in either.

I like the value on the Reds to earn a victory today as a result. They're 4-1 in their last five as an underdog while the Blue Jays are 4-7 over their past 11 as a favorite. But I also love Cincy's chances to eclipse their team total of 3.5 (-105).

The Reds have scored at least four runs in 10 of their last 11 as an underdog and I don't think the market has properly adjusted to their offensive improvement. With Ryu's struggles, Cincinnati should continue their strong play.

Pick: Reds (+148) and Reds Team Total Over 3.5 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.