Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 5 (Reds Undervalued In Milwaukee)

The Milwaukee Brewers bring a four-game losing streak into today's series opener with the Cincinnati Reds, as they've lost their NL Central lead and sit in a tie with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Eric Lauer hopes to get Milwaukee back on track after compiling a 2.96 ERA in July. He allowed two or fewer runs in four of five starts last month, though he's walked three batters in three consecutive outings.

Winners of four of five, the Reds counter with Robert Duggar, who was just called up from the minors and will make his first start of the season. Duggar has a 5.06 ERA through three appearances this year, but did throw 3.2 scoreless innings against the Pirates in his most recent outing.

Can Milwaukee snap out of its slump or will Cincy take advantage of its struggles?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us analyze this Reds vs Brewers matchup:

Reds vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds: +1.5 (-110)
• Brewers: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Reds: +200
• Brewers: -220

Total:

• 9.0 (Over +100/Under -120)

Reds vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

Milwaukee easily leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers the last three weeks and return to the comfy confines of Miller Park, where its won five of six as favorites. That being said, I find it difficult to trust the Brewers in their slide, especially with a struggling bullpen made worse with the departure of Josh Hader.

Eric Lauer seems to have found himself after a disastrous June in which he posted a 6.83 ERA, but I'm unimpressed by his underlying metrics. He has a worse FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than actual ERA in four of his last five starts, so he's been lucky.

I don't have a ton of faith in Robert Duggar either, but he allowed one run or fewer in three of his final four starts in the minors and threw 3.2 scoreless innings against Pittsburgh in his last MLB appearance.

The Brewers should certainly be favored, but this line feels too big. Lauer ranks in the 20th percentile in barrel percentage and 36th in hard hit percentage while being prone to collapse. Milwaukee is 5-6 in his last 11 starts while the Reds are 9-7 in their last 16 as underdogs.

In my eyes, Milwaukee should be closer to a -165 favorite. As a result, I see value on the +200 odds on Cincinnati. The slumping Brewers can't be trusted, even if I think they win this game a majority of the time. Take the value on the Reds and expect regression for Lauer.

Pick: Reds ML (+200)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.