Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 7 (Graham Ashcraft Remains Undervalued)

Graham Ashcraft is an underrated young starter in this league. After his finest performance of the season in his last start, 8.1 innings against Miami while not allowing an earned run, Ashcraft is ready for his biggest challenge: battling Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The 2021 NL Cy Young award winner has a 2.49 ERA this year and the Brewers are 7-2 in his last nine starts. That being said, he has a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts and labored with command against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week, walking five batters.

Cincinnati is 5-1 in Ashcraft's road starts and 9-4 in his outings overall, so the Reds are finding success behind him despite a miserable season overall.

Can Ashcraft's rise continue or will Milwaukee complete a series win?

To assess the value in this Reds vs Brewers matchup, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Reds vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds +1.5 (+110)
• Brewers -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

• Reds: +240
• Brewers: -270

Total:

• 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Reds vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

I know Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young last year and that the Brewers are 6-2 in their last eight games as home favorites. To that I say: so what?

Graham Ashcraft remains undervalued and I'm thrilled to see +240 odds on the Reds this afternoon.

I'd never heard the nickname Dougie Fastballs until I saw that tweet, but I'm rolling with the sublime nickname and love Ashcraft even more now than I did 30 seconds ago.

Dougie Fastballs has five straight starts with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) under 4.40 and has continually improved throughout the season. Oddsmakers continue to disrespect him though, and as a result he's been incredibly profitable for bettors.

If you bet $100 on the Reds moneyline in every Ashcraft start, you'd be up $964.

While Dougie Fastballs is improving, Burnes is in a cold streak. He had a 7.24 FIP in his last start against the Pirates and a 4.91 FIP against Colorado two starts before that. Milwaukee's lineup is prone to disappearing acts, and I think Ashcraft takes advantage.

The Brewers should be favored, but not by this much. I'll happily take a shot on Cincinnati at +240 as Dougie Fastballs continues his rise.

Pick: Reds (+240)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.