Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Thursday, May 5 (Fade the Reds, Rinse and Repeat)
By Matt De Saro
Is it weird that I think the Cincinnati Reds are the most interesting storyline in the MLB right now?
Truth be told, I've paid more attention to the Reds' losing streak than I have to my New York Yankees’ winning streak. Let’s catch up on just how bad things are going for Cincinnati.
Since beating the St. Louis Cardinals and snapping their 11-game losing streak, the Reds have fallen back into old habits. They lost six in a row leading up to their current series against the Milwaukee Brewers along with Games 1 and 2 of this series. The Reds are 1-7 ATS in that span and 2-19 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Brewers, on the other hand, lead the NL Central and have thoroughly enjoyed this series vs. Cincinnati.
Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, and Total
Run Line
- Reds +1.5 (+105)
- Brewers -1.5 (-125)
Moneyline:
- Reds +195
- Brewers -225
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -120/Under +110)
Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
The Reds are playing so badly right now they have a legitimate chance at finishing the year as the worst team in MLB history. It’s a long season, but things don’t look like they are going to get better anytime soon. As Codify pointed out recently on Twitter, the Reds’ OPS+ of 63 and ERA+ of 72 would be the worst marks of any team in the last century if the season ended today. That is actually not accurate as that post was written on May 3 and the Reds ERA+ got worse in the last couple of days.
The Reds have an OPS+ of 63. No American or National League team has ever finished a season that low.
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 3, 2022
The Reds have an ERA+ of 72. No American or National League team in the last 100 years has finished a season that low.
With Hunter Greene on the hill, that ERA+ number is unlikely to get better today. Greene is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 18 innings. He has given up at least two runs in each of his first four starts along with five total home runs. Good news for a Milwaukee team that ranks seventh in home runs with 26 in their first 24 games.
There isn’t much else to say here, the Reds have been the best bet-against team I have seen in years. I’m not about to start trusting them now.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-125)
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE