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Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, June 15 (Underdog Value With Luis Castillo on Mound)

By Matt De Saro

Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers / John Fisher/GettyImages
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Two of the worst teams in the entire league clash this afternoon with a surprisingly good pitcher’s duel on tap. The Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks are back at it today with Game 3 of their three-game series. The Reds took Game 1 on Monday 5-4 but are still a very bad team top to bottom. After showing signs of life in May, the Reds went 8-4 in the 12 June games leading up to this series. Worth noting that two of those wins came against the Diamondbacks last week. 

Despite being favored, I think the Reds actually have an edge on the mound with Luis Castillo going up against Zac Gallen. 

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks.  

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Reds: +1.5 (-165)
  • Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+145)

Moneyline:

  • Reds: +120
  • Diamondbacks: -140

Total:

  • Total 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

While I view this as a pitching mismatch, it’s not a dig on Gallen really. He’s been very good while playing for a terrible team and boasts a 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 58 innings.

I’ve won a lot of games with Arizona as underdogs thanks to Gallen’s arm. But, he has been very shaky in his last four starts including a disastrous six-inning implosion against the Royals. Things went from bad to worse and Gallen’s last start was just 1 ⅔ inning long. He gave up six runs, four earned, on seven hits including two home runs. It took him 66 pitches to pitch less than two innings and faced 14 batters in that span. As if that weren’t bad enough, Gallen has a .317 batting average against the current Reds roster. 

Castillo, meanwhile, has been getting better as we head into summer. He lowered his ERA from 3.38 in May to 2.92 so far in 12 ⅓ innings this month. Furthermore, the current Diamondbacks are hitting just .211 against him with no extra-base hits. 

The fact is that both of these teams are trash and this game could go either way. With Castillo showing more in recent games, I think the Reds are a great play at plus odds here. 

Pick: Reds +120 ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE