Reds vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Monday, June 13 (Mike Minor's Struggles Give Arizona Advantage)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Minor has an 8.75 ERA through two starts this season.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Minor has an 8.75 ERA through two starts this season. / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The 21-39 Cincinnati Reds snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday. Tonight, they'll hope for a similar result when they open a series in Arizona with the 29-33 Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM EST.

Mike Minor makes his third start of the season for Cincinnati after giving up eight runs in his first two, both losses. He has an 8.75 ERA, giving up five home runs in only 8.1 innings of work.

Arizona turns to Merrill Kelly, who has given up three or fewer runs in all but one of his 12 outings. He has a 5-3 record and 3.32 ERA, though he's been stellar at home, compiling a 2.65 ERA over six starts.

Can Kelly stay hot at home? Or will Minor earn his first win of the 2022 campaign?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us evaluate this matchup:

Reds vs Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130)


  • Reds: +133
  • Diamondbacks: -143


  • 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Sometimes, life is very simple. Is it raining outside? Then I need an umbrella. Does my car make a weird sound when I drive? Then I need to take it to the mechanic. Is Mike Minor pitching? Then I need to bet on the other team.

Dating back to last season, Mike Minor's team has lost nine consecutive games he's started. All but two of the losses came by multiple runs, and he's given up home runs like it's somehow in the job description.

He's obviously only had two starts this year, but Minor's 7.95 expected ERA is a disaster, and his 10.46 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is one of the worst marks I've ever seen. The guy is a trainwreck, with all due respect to wrecked trains.

Merrill Kelly has has his share of struggles but his 3.80 expected ERA is worlds better than anything Minor brings to the table. Arizona has won two straight games he's started and are 10-5 in their last 15 as a home favorite.

The Reds, meanwhile, are 6-19 in their last 25 as a road underdog and I don't see things getting easier for them today.

I'll roll with the Diamondbacks to take advantage of Minor's struggles and player props on Arizona hitters to drill a home run are worth a long look as well.

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.