Reds vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Wednesday May 18 (Tyler Mahle's Poor Luck Continues Against Cleveland)

The Cleveland Guardians host the Cincinnati Reds in the second game of a two-game series today at 1:10 PM EST.

Both squads have suffered from inconsistency to this point in the season, with the Reds in particular enduring a historically bad run. Each has turned a corner of late, though, so this series is a sort of litmus test for who has actually put their bad play behind them.

Tyler Mahle will start for Cincinnati and is coming off a pair of strong starts against Pittsburgh. In 11 innings across the two outings, he allowed four runs while striking out 14. His ERA sits at 5.89, but his 3.45 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is the lowest of his career and implies positive regression is coming.

Cleveland will counter with Cal Quantrill, who has thrown at least six innings in each of his last four appearances and has a quality start in three of them.

Which squad will secure this important victory early in the season? Can Mahle's luck turn around or will the steady Quantrill propel the Guardians to a home victory?

Let's use the odds from WynnBET to answer those questions and find some value in this Reds vs Guardians matchup:

Reds vs Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds +1.5 (-185)
• Guardians -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline:

• Reds +118
• Guardians -128

Total:

• 8 (Over +100/Under -120)

Reds vs Guardians Prediction and Pick

Tyler Mahle has a lot of poor luck recently. His underlying metrics are solid, ranking in the upper half of the league in hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, expected ERA, strikeout rate, and a number of other predictive statistics. But he's got a 2-4 record and a 5.89 actual ERA because the baseball won't seem to bounce his way.

And now, as a reward for the bad luck he's experienced, he gets to face a Guardians lineup that leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers. They tagged him for four earned runs in five innings in Cincy's home opener last month, a game Cleveland won 10-5, and are well-positioned to cause mayhem once again.

At least he's not Hunter Greene, who took a loss on Sunday despite not allowing a single hit. That's almost impossible, but the Reds excel at inventing ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Cal Quantrill is steady enough to keep Cincinnati's pathetic lineup at bay, especially within the friendly confines of Progressive Field. The Reds rank 29th in OPS on the road and are a sickening 2-15 in their last 17 road games entering this series. All but two of those losses came by multiple runs, and I expect their struggles to continue against a Guardians squad that's won seven of nine at home.

Eventually, Mahle's luck will turn around and he'll be a worthy pitcher to back. That day is not today, however. Give me Cleveland to stay hot and take advantage of a Reds team that can't get out of their own way.

Pick: Guardians ML -128

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE