Reds vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 23 (Ranger Suarez Has Been Elite)

Monday’s MLB action was as low-scoring as they come, and we have an interesting pitching matchup in the Cincinnati Reds-Philadelphia Phillies game that gave us a 1-0 finish last week.

There were 38 total runs scored across the 9 MLB games today (4.22 per game).

That's the lowest average runs per game on a day with at least 9 games since September 26, 1917 (3.78).
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) August 23, 2022

Reds lefty Nick Lodolo (3-4, 4.12 ERA) takes on another lefty in Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.31 ERA) in a rematch of their Aug. 17 game. Both of these starters tossed seven innings of scoreless ball in that matchup, with the Reds coming away with the win once the bullpens entered.

The Phillies have dropped off a bit in the NL wild card race, but they are 14-7 when Suarez is on the mound in 2022.

Here are the odds from WynnBET for Tuesday’s game:

Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

Reds +1.5 (-120)
Phillies -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline:

Reds: +185
Phillies: -205

Total:

8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Reds vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

The fact that these two teams played such a low-scoring game on Aug. 17 is surprising, as the Phillies are fifth in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching while the Reds are 16th in the same category.

Lodolo, who had failed to get through five innings in his first two starts of August, has great strikeout stuff, but he’s been up and down all season long. The Reds are decent in his starts given their overall record, going 7-4 so far in 2022.

Prior to the 1-0 loss to Cincy, the Phillies had won five straight starts by Suarez, and he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball since returning to the rotation in mid-July after dealing with back spasms.

In six starts since then, Suarez has a 1.02 ERA and has struck out 33 batters in 35.1 innings pitched. It’s hard to fade him right now, especially since he’s allowed more than one run just once over this stretch.

Although Lodolo’s squad got the win the last time these teams faced off, I think he comes back to earth against a Philly lineup that usually crushes lefties.

Lean: Phillies -1.5 (+100)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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