A blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, right? Cincinnati certainly did last night in a wildly improbable win over the Yankees.
Prior to last night's game, the Yankees were 49-0 with the lead entering the 9th inning....
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) July 13, 2022
The Reds were 0-49 when trailing going into the 9th...
We all know what happened next 😅
(h/t @jluckhaupt)pic.twitter.com/a3194oO0qP
At the end of they day, the Reds are still blind squirrels and New York is set for revenge as a massive favorite with Luis Severino on the mound tonight at 7:05 PM EST.
Mike Minor starts for a Cincinnati team that's won five straight, but he's the blindest squirrel of all with his team losing 13 of his last 14 outings.
To find out if Cincy can somehow eschew common wisdom once again, let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Reds vs Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Reds: +1.5 (+140)
- Yankees: -1.5 (-170)
Moneyline:
- Reds: +280
- Yankees: -320
Total:
- 9.0 (Over +105/Under -125)
Reds vs Yankees Prediction and Pick
Mike Minor is a charitable guy. He lets every team score tons of runs and does not discriminate against bad lineups.
Grand Slam 💪
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 7, 2022
Aaron Judge's 30th HR clears the bases!
(via @Yankees)pic.twitter.com/WtV0IjpGiD
Unfortunately for the Reds, New York happens to have the most dangerous lineup in baseball. Minor gave up at least one home run in every single start, so keep an eye on home run props for the Yankees today.
I don't recommend betting props on Cincinnati's lineup though, because Luis Severino is among the most dominant starters in MLB.
Luis Severino has a 1.34 ERA in Interleague play.
— New York Yankees Stats (@nyyankeesstats) July 7, 2022
That's the lowest ERA in Interleague play all-time (min. 10 GS)
Severino has a 2.62 home ERA and has limited his opponent to three runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts. He's coming off six shutout innings against the Pirates and hasn't allowed more than five hits in over a month.
Dating back to last season, Minor's team is 1-13 in his last 14 starts with all but two losses coming by multiple runs. But I can't justify paying -170 juice on the Yankees' run line. If you can find a -2.5 alternate line, I'd recommend that.
Otherwise, I'm eyeing the Yankees team total OVER 5.5 (-105). In addition to Minor's charitable endeavors, the Reds' bullpen and defense are poor. New York will have plenty of chances to rack up runs and all it'll take is one blast over the outfield wall to send us off and running.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (-105)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.