Reed's Underdog Round Robin for College Football Week 8

We are back for another week of underdogs on a Saturday. After Tennessee broke our hearts late last week, we were able to scratch out a small profit to bring our bets in this weekly segment to 15-11 on the year.

We are still fishing for a perfect week, but this low unit, high payout round robin has yielded profit all year long. This week, I went with five dogs I see on the card as live for an upset, while adding a short favorite I see as a great bet I want to add more exposure too.

Again, this is not a heavy unit play, but a fun way too shoot for a big payout. Best of luck this weekend.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Ohio (+185) vs. Kent State

Ohio is 1-6 on the year, but they are trending in the right direction since turning to transfer quarterback Armani Rogers. Rogers is a run-first quarterback who had a 99-yard touchdown run last week against Buffalo.

Now, the team faces a Kent State defense that is outside the top 100 in defensive success rate and line yards. Ohio is going to try and limit the tempo of one of the fastest teams in the country in the Golden Flashes with a ground game that is averaging nearly six yards per carry.

Ohio must take care of the ball, Kent State is tied for sixth in turnovers gained this season, but is also near the top of the country in penalty yards.

I'm counting on the Bobcats to establish the run at home and take advantage of an undisciplined Golden Flashes team. The change to Rogers is giving us value on Ohio, and I have this game lined as a pick.

Miami (OH) (+180) vs. Ball State

Ball State has been able to win three straight by winning the turnover margin 8-0, but they may see some harsh regression against a Miami (OH) team that is the top team in the nation in havoc generated.

I expect the RedHawks to cash in on quarterback Drew Plitt mistakes and attack a soft Cardinals defense that is 118th in defensive success rate. Miami has a solid offensive line and has been able to average more than four yards per carry this season, around the national average, so I expect them to grind this game out and get a road upset.

I make Miami favorites in this one so I'm willing to go for the moneyline payout.

UCLA (-115) vs. Oregon

Also kicking off in the afternoon slate is UCLA in a massive PAC-12 matchup against No. 10 Oregon.

Oregon's defense is a major concern heading into this one against a dynamic UCLA backfield, led by dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Ducks are 87th in defensive success rate, and bottom third in the country in tackling.

UCLA's defense isn't much better, 78th in defensive success rate, but the Ducks offense is lost without running back CJ Verdell, who was lost for the year earlier this month against Stanford. Quarterback Anthony Brown won't challenge the Bruins secondary and I expect UCLA picks up a big conference win.

Boston College (+190) vs. Louisville

This is a fantastic buy low spot on BC after facing the two toughest defenses in the ACC in Clemson and North Carolina State, both losses, in consecutive weeks.

Louisville's defense is 113th in line yards and the unit allows opponents to complete more than 69% of their passes. For BC, backup quarterback Dennis Grosel will welcome this pedestrian defense after getting beat up the past few weeks.

The Eagles also have the defense to give Louisville QB Malik Cunningham trouble. The D is near the top of the nation in line yards and great at limiting explosive runs. Overall, this group is 22nd in defensive success rate, and I'll trust them to keep a lid on the Cardinals offense.

This number is an overreaction to recent results. I have this game lined as a pick as well so I'm happy to get BC at +190.

San Diego State (+145) vs. Air Force

This is a strength on strength matchup with San Diego State's suffocating run defense taking on the triple option of Air Force. The Aztecs are allowing just over two yards per carry, is fifth in the country in havoc generated and are sixth in defensive success rate.

We know what Air Force wants to do and SDSU is going to be ready for it.

While the Aztec's offense is as bad as their defense is great, the team has the advantage in special teams.

SDSU has the best kicker and punter in the country (no, seriously) in Matt Araiza, who has made a 52 yarder this season and has an 86 yard punt to his name. Overall, San Diego State is 14th in S&P+ Special Teams metric, Air Force is outside the top 100.

In a game that is sure to be a slug fest and low scoring, field position is important. Give me the underdog.

Nevada (+140) vs. Fresno State

We finish with a familiar team on the round robin, Nevada.

This is a game with massive Mountain West title implications and I'm going to side with Carson Strong and the air raid offense. Overall, I think the Bulldogs secondary is getting too much credit after facing poor passing games.

This will be a unique challenge facing a pass-happy Nevada team after Fresno State has faced a handful of run dominant teams all season, making their pass defense metrics look better than they are.

Fresno State, despite limiting opponents to under 50% completion percentage are 107th in explosive pass defense. Nevada will have no trouble attacking this part of the defense with the likes of Romeo Doubs.

Also, I'm curious about the health of Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener, who has been banged up for much of this season. He has completed 43-of-78 passes over his last two games and threw four interceptions against Hawai'i. If he isn't 100%, Nevada will win this comfortably.