Reed's Underdog Round Robin for Week 7

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) warms up before a game Tennessee and Missouri at Faurot
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) warms up before a game Tennessee and Missouri at Faurot / Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA

The underdog round robin is back for it's weekly set.

After a 1-4 week we get off the mat and battle back. Overall the picks in this post are 12-9 and we have five more live underdogs making up the Saturday card on this Week 7 college football slate.

These odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportbsook, make sure to limit your exposure on these and hope for us to cash all five. Onward with this weeks picks.

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Oklahoma State (+155) vs. Texas

My numbers have Texas favored by 1 this weekend, and this line has been dropping throughout the week. Now, the Longhorns are four-point home favorites after opening as 6-point faves earlier.

While it's tough to fade the best running back in the country, Bijan Robinson, and the explosive passer Casey Thompson, I'm not sure where Texas' is at mentally after squandering a double digit lead to Oklahoma in the Red River Game last week.

Meanwhile, the Pokes come in off of a bye, with head coach Mike Gundy, who is 25-15 off of a bye as head coach for Oklahoma State. While I'm not sold on Oklahoma State in the grand scheme of things, this is a perfect storm for them to pounce on a heart broken Texas team.

This UT defense has a ton of issues, outside the top 90 in both rush and pass success rate, as well as finishing drives. If OSU quarterback Spencer Sanders can avoid turnovers, the Pokes can establish the run with senior running back Jaylen Warren -- three straight games over 120 yards -- and win this outright.

Arizona (+195) vs. Colorado

This is admittedly gross. But we are looking for value and a big payout, and this is what we have here.

Arizona is 0-5, I know. But Colorado is 1-4 and has not competed at all this season, unable to score more than 14 points against FBS opponents.

The visiting Wildcats are going back to redshirt freshman Gunner Cruz, who started the first two games of the season, and looked passable on a neutral site against BYU, completing 34-of-45 passes for 336 yards in an eight-point loss.

If Cruz can make a few plays and open up the passing game, that may be enough in a game with a low total of 46.5. Colorado is outside the top 100 in offensive pass success and 96th in rush success, so neither unit is going to do much, but I'll take the upside and relative unknown of Cruz in a limited sample size.

I make this game Colorado -4 with extra home field advantage in the altitude, but Arizona can spring an upset. The Buffs shouldn't be favored by this much against any Power 5 team.

Washington State (+105) vs. Stanford

I make Wazzu a small favorite in this game, and think the market continues to undersell the Cougars after a slow start. This is a team that has two straight wins, including one last week at home against Oregon State as four-point underdogs.

Stanford's defense may be in trouble with injuries in the secondary and the 118th best defense in terms of success rate. Washington State was able to pick up seven yards per play last week and I expect them to continue their improvement once again with quarterback Jayden De Laura taking firm control of the starting job.

Tennessee (+125) vs. Ole Miss

This is one of my favorite plays of the week, and you can read my full game preview here. I make Tennessee a one-point favorite and was happy to grab the home team +3.5 earlier in the week, but I envision they win this one outright.

While Lane Kiffin's Rebels play at a fast pace, the Vols play even faster, leading the nation in plays per minute. I expect a ton of points -- as seen with the total of 82.5 -- but the Tennessee defense is going to get timely stops to take this one. Tennessee is 27th in S&P+ defensive rankings while Ole Miss is outside the top 50. Ole Miss is also bottom 10 in penalties committed and bottom 30 in tackling, these are the little edges that will prove important down the stretch.

Tennessee shouldn't be an underdog, and they are in line to get a much needed victory over a ranked foe in front of Rocky Top.

Air Force (+145) vs. Boise State

This is not only a great spot for Air Force, one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the country, but a great opportunity to sell Boise after another turnover-filled win over BYU on the road.

Boise's rush defense is below average, 72nd in EPA/rush, while Air Force's offense is 22nd in the same metric. The Falcons of course are a triple option offensive unit, which means an early lead can make like incredibly difficult for their opponents.

Boise State has threats in the passing game, but Air Force allows only a 50% completion percentage and generates Havoc at an elite clip, including 19 sacks.

The home team has a poor run game to begin with, averaging less than three yards a carry, and a subpar offensive line. Air Force's defense can control the line of scrimmage, put Boise behind the sticks and let the triple option get to work and chew clock.