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Richmond vs. Dayton Prediction and Odds for Atlantic 10 Semifinals (Wrong Team Favored)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 4, 2021; Richmond, Virginia, USA; Richmond Spiders guard Jacob Gilyard (0) dribbles the ball as
Mar 4, 2021; Richmond, Virginia, USA; Richmond Spiders guard Jacob Gilyard (0) dribbles the ball as / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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Dayton is firmly in the mix for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament, but likely will need to do more to impress the selection committee. They will face Richmond, who fell short of preseason expectations this season, but are building a ton of momentum towards an Atlantic 10 title.

The youngest teams in the country, Dayton, will look to advance to the A-10 Championship game against one of the oldest teams, Richmond.

Who has the edge? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Richmond vs. Dayton Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Richmond: +2.5 (-110)
  • Dayton: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Richmond: +120
  • Dayton: -145

Total: 129 (Over -110/Under -110)

Richmond vs. Dayton Prediction and Pick

I like this matchup for Richmond, who lost by two on a last second alley oop on March 1st to the Flyers. In a nip-and-tuck 55-53 final, the takeaway should be that there isn't much separating the two. Richmond closed -2 in that game, if we count 3 points for homecourt, Dayton should be favored by a point now. However, they are over a bucket, which feels like an overreaction.

I agree with the logic that Dayton should be about a 1-point fave in this one, and don't see cause to move this line, even further especially when contextualizing this matchup.

The Flyers are an incredibly young roster that is playing for their tournament lives. I believe that we are going to see some nerves from Dayton, who already looked shaky in their quarterfinals win over UMass. Anthony Grant's team had to rally from down 3 in the final 90 seconds to win as double digit favorites.

Meanwhile, Richmond has looked strong, knocking off physical opponents in Rhode Island and VCU. Maybe there is some tired legs from the Spiders, playing their third game in three days, but the team has a capable ball handler in Jacob Gilyard and a ton of experience on the floor, 18th in that metric according to KenPom (Dayton is literally the youngest by this metric).

Richmond is full of seniors and are trying to make one last push for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.

I think the Spiders get it done and continue on to the A-10 Finals.

PICK: Richmond +2.5, play to -1

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 94-91-3 for -1.22 units.

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