Richmond vs. Toledo Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 30 (Spiders Defense Undervalued)
By Peter Dewey
The Richmond Spiders are just 3-3 on the 2022-23 season heading into a road matchup against the Toledo Rockets on Wednesday night.
Toledo has been an impressive offensive team so far this season, ranking 35th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency with three different players averaging over 16.0 points per game. Rayj Davis, JT Shumate and Setric Millner are three solid veterans for this Rockets squad, but they’ll face one of the A-10’s best talents in Richmond’s Tyler Burton.
The Rockets have played just one team inside KenPom’s top-100, beating the UAB Blazers by eight points on a neutral court. Can they take down another top-100 opponent on Wednesday?
Here’s a look at the latest odds:
Richmond vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total
Richmond vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick
This is the ultimate clash of styles, as Richmond relies heavily on Burton and a deliberate attack (335th in adjusted tempo) while the Rockets love to play fast and score a ton of points, ranking 19th in adjusted tempo and 32nd in effective field goal percentage.
Losses to Kansas City and East Carolina certainly hurt the Rockets’ resume, but the team is going to be tough to stop if its top three players all have it going on Wednesday.
That’s a big reason why Toledo is favored in this game, but can the Spiders prove that they’re better than their 3-3 record?
I think they can, as Richmond has yet to lose a game by more than three points this season. The team has OT losses to Charleston and Syracuse on the resume, and the Charleston game showed Richmond can score with a fast-paced offense.
It’s elite on the defensive end, ranking 36th in the country in effective field goal percentage, and the Spiders could control the pace to limit the Rockets’ chances at easy shots.
KenPom projects this as a one-point loss for the Spiders, and I simply think this defense is getting too many points against a Rockets team that hasn’t played anyone all season.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.