Rider vs. Manhattan Prediction and Odds for MAAC First Round (Broncs to Win Against Inept Jaspers Offense)

The MAAC Tournament gets underway this afternoon as the 12-18 #9 seed Rider Broncs take on the 15-14 #8 Manhattan Jaspers at 5:00 PM EST. I previewed the tournament here yesterday, but now it's time to dive into the specific matchups.

These teams split the regular season series, with Manhattan earning a 6-point win and Rider getting a 9-point victory. The Broncs have covered the spread in three of their last four while the Jaspers are coming off an impressive upset win over #1 seed Iona.

Will Rider stay hot against the spread (ATS) and notch their fourth cover in five tries or will the Jaspers ride the momentum from a stellar performance for a second-straight win?

Let's take a gander at the odds via WynnBET to find out:

Rider vs Manhattan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Rider -1.5 (-110)
• Manhattan +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Rider: -125
• Manhattan: +105

Total:

• 138 (Over -110/Under -110)

Rider vs Manhattan Prediction and Pick

Neither team inspires a ton of confidence. Rider has won just twice in its last seven contests while Manhattan is a streaky, inconsistent squad. The Jaspers snapped a three-game losing streak with their win over Iona, but had won three straight before the losing streak and lost four straight prior to that. Perhaps it's time for a new winning streak?

I'm not convinced that's the case. Manhattan's offense has been abysmal recently, ranking in the 6th percentile in rating over their last five games. Their defense hasn't been much better with a 27th-percentile rank in that same time frame. They turn the ball over on over 20% of their possessions and are bad both inside and out, with the 307th-best two-point defense and 330th-highest 3-point shooting percentage.

Rider, meanwhile, has at least shown some life. The Broncs are 11-4 ATS over their last 15 and have covered in two of their last three as a favorite. Their offense is playing better of late, rising from the 16th percentile in rating (yuck) to the 36th over their last five.

My concern for the Broncs comes with free throws. Manhattan has the second-highest free throw rate in the country and had 24 attempts at the line in their win over Rider, but the Jaspers are shooting just 69.3% from the charity stripe over their last five and rank 284th in defensive free throw rate, so they mitigate their own advantage by allowing their opponent to get to the line a ton as well.

Manhattan's offense has just been too bad recently to trust. Over their last five games, they're in the 0 percentile in field goal percentage, first in two-point shooting and 0 again in 3-point shooting. Rider is in the 96th percentile in free throw shooting over the same time frame and I think their improved shooting proves the difference in a close matchup.

Pick: Rider -1.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.