Not every week can be a winning week, unfortunately. After back-to-back strong results, we stumbled a bit in Week 14, going 6-9 (-3.16 units). That brings our Road to 272 Bets record this season to 109-97-2 (+6.01 units).
Bye weeks are officially a thing of the past so from now until the end of the season, we have 16 games to watch and bet on. If you don't already know, I'm placing a bet on the side or total for every single one of them. 272 regular season games, 272 bets.
You can take an in-depth look at my record so far over at Betstamp.
One of the main strategies I use to try to be as successful as possible when betting on the NFL is having accounts at multiple sportsbooks. That way, I can always make sure I'm getting the best odds available on each game. You should do the same and if you don't already have an account at DraftKings Sportsbook, use the link below to sign up for an account. If you do, you'll instantly receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets for Every Game
Chargers vs. Raiders prediction
My fellow Canadians and anyone else who played hockey as a kid in the early 2000s will remember the Eastern Synergy sticks. You weren't cool unless you rocked one and as a goaltender, I was devastated there wasn't a goalie stick version of them. My point in telling you this is Easton Stick gets the start at quarterback for the Chargers on Thursday in place of the injured Justin Herbert, and I can't help but think about that beautiful hockey stick whenever I hear or read his name.
I digress. I'm betting on the Raiders. The only thing the Chargers had going for them the past number of weeks was Justin Herbert. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 25th in opponent EPA/Play and 28th in opponent success rate, and now their offense is going to be nonexistent with Stick at quarterback.
The Raiders are sneaky defensively and at least have a quarterback who's not making his first career start. This game is keeping up with the tradition of horrible Thursday Night Football games, but I see no other bet to make besides the Raiders.
I'll lay the field goal.
Pick: Raiders -3 (-110)
Vikings vs. Bengals prediction
Jake Browning is so hot right now. Unfortunately, there are few things I like doing more than betting against an upstart quarterback who came out of nowhere and had a few good starts. I'm going to need a bit of a larger sample size before I start calling this guy a great quarterback.
This is going to be a tough test for him this week. Brian Flores has done huge things with this Vikings' defense. They're now fifth in opponent EPA and seventh in opponent success rate. The zone blitzes he schemes up are going to cause a lot of confusion for Browning.
I'm banking on Nick Mullens getting the start in this game, he looked much better than Joshua Dobbs when he came in late in the game against the Raiders in Week 14. If he does get the nod, I feel pretty good about this Vikings bet considering the Bengals still boast one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They're 26th in opponent EPA and 31st in opponent success rate.
Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-105)
Steelers vs. Colts prediction
This game is an interesting one between two very average teams but there is one thing about the Colts that gives me faith in the Steelers to keep it close and that's the fact the Colts have struggled to stop the run this season.
Heading into Week 15, the Colts are 26th in opponent rush EPA and 29th in opponent rush success rate. If the Steelers decide to keep the ball on the ground, which they should absolutely do with Kenny Pickett still sidelined, they could find a lot of success there.
As a whole, the Steelers have the better defense in this game, ranking inside the top 10 in both opponent EPA and opponent success rate.
I'll take the field goal with Pittsburgh on the road.
Pick: Steelers +3 (-110)
Broncos vs. Lions prediction
I think it's time to buy low on the Lions. We know now they aren't a real Super Bowl contender but I think we need to pump the breaks on them being an average football team. They're still very good, especially on offense, and they match up well at home against the Broncos.
For example, the Lions are still seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.5, leagues above the Broncos who come in at 29th in -0.9. Detroit has also been significantly better when playing on its home field, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +1.1 compared to -0.1 on the road.
The Broncos are in the same boat, playing well at home but struggling in a major way at home. Their splits are even more significant, going from a Net Yards per Play of 0.0 at home to -1.6 on the road, the second-worst road mark in the NFL.
Everything points to the Lions bouncing back in a big way in this one. I have no problem laying the points on Detroit.
Pick: Lions -4.5 (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Packers prediction
Let's pump the brakes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a second. Yes, I understand that they currently lead the disastrous NFC South, but they are the clear No. 3 team in the division at the moment. They were out-gained 6.3 yards per play to 4.3 yards per play in their win against the Falcons last week and are now 26th in Net Yards per Play and 22nd in Net Yards per Play over their last three games.
The Packers are going to be able to throw the ball against this Buccaneers defense that's 29th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.2 yards per throw, and even Desmond Ridder threw for over 300 yards against them last week.
40.07% of the yards gained against this Packers defense comes on the ground, the fourth highest rate in the NFL, meaning teams can run the ball against them. Unfortunately, the Bucs are 24th in rush EPA, 30th in rush success rate, and 31st in yards per carry (3.5). Their inability to attack the Packers where they're weak gives Green Bay the stylistic advantage.
I'll lay the points with the Packers at home.
Pick: Packers -3 (-102)
Falcons vs. Panthers prediction
I successfully bet against my Falcons last week and don't get me wrong, they are a frustrating team to watch, but I still think they're the right team to wager on against this terrible Panthers team. Let's just start with the obvious, the Falcons are the overall better team.
Atlanta enters the game ranking 12th in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and seventh in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.4). The Panthers are 31st for season-long numbers at -1 and 28th over their last three games at -1. It's clear the Falcons are, at the very least, much better at moving the ball down the field and preventing their opponents from doing so.
Then we can talk about the stylistic advantage the Falcons have. They've run the ball on 48.02% of plays this season and 51.79% of plays over their last three games. Now, they get to face the worst run defense in the NFL. The Panthers are dead last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.
The Falcons will be able to run the ball all game and should have no issue shutting down the Panthers' decrepit offense which has scored just 15.2 points per game this season.
I'll lay the field goal with the Dirty Birds.
Pick: Falcons -3 (-111)
Giants vs. Saints prediction
I don't care that the Giants have won three straight games, I'm still convinced this is a garbage football team. They're near the bottom of the NFL in the majority of analytics and were dead last in the league in Net Yards per Play before their Monday Night Football win against the Packers. A win against the Commanders, Patriots, and Packers isn't enough to convince me to evaluate this team any differently.
The Saints' defense is seventh in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate, so Tommy DeVito is going to face one of the toughest defenses he's had to so far. I don't think it's going to work out for him so I'm going to try to fade New York once again by laying the points with the Saints.
Pick: Saints -5.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Titans prediction
This game is going to come down to the health of C.J. Stroud. He's in concussion protocol so he's questionable for this week. Even if he does play, the Texans' are riddled with injuries. Dalton Schultz is out for this week, Tank Dell is on injured reserve, and Nico Collins is questionable. They also have some injuries on defense including Blake Cashman, Tavierre Thomas, and Will Anderson, who are all listed as questionable for this week.
The Titans are better offensively this season than you may think. These two teams are 13th and 14th in EPA per Play and the Titans outrank the Texans in success rate, 22nd to 26th.
Based on injuries, I simply have to trust the Titans tog et the job done in this spot.
Pick: Titans -2.5 (-110)
Bears vs. Browns prediction
I'm not fully convinced the Browns are going to continue to win with their offense and now their injury report is extensive. Their offensive line specifically is banged up, with their center, Ethan Pocic, questionable for Sunday, and their offensive tackle Dawand Jones, out for the season. That's their third offensive tackle that has suffered a season-ending injury.
Meanwhile, the Bears have played some solid football lately, especially on defense. If they were able to shut down the Lions this past weekend, you can be certain they'll be able to shut down the likes of Joe Flacco.
I'll take the Bears as my upset pick of the week.
Pick: Bears +150
Jets vs. Dolphins prediction
Instead of laying the points with the Dolphins, I'm going to go ahead and take the UNDER instead. I keep expecting the Jets' defense to give up on their season, but they've been better as the season goes on. They're now second in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.4 yards per throw. If there's any defense that can slow down the pass attack of the Dolphins, it's the Jets.
Then there's the Jets offense that's still dead last in EPA per Play and success rate, sporting a success rate 2% lower than the next closest team. This is the worst offense in the league paired with arguably the best defense in the league. If that's not a recipe for an UNDER bet than I don't know what is.
Pick: UNDER 40.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Patriots prediction
The Patriots were (rightfully) getting a bad rap for the majority of this season, but they're a better team than people have given them credit for and they showed flashes of that against the Steelers last week. For example, they're 17th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season and sixth in the NFL in that stat over their last three games. Despite that, the betting market is treating them like a bottom-five team. While their record is in the bottom five, I think they're better than that.
If the Patriots are smart, which I think they are, they're going to try to pound the rock against this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has had a ton of issues stopping the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry (28th) while also ranking 23rd in opponent rush success rate and 31st in opponent rush EPA.
Pick: Patriots +10 (-120)
Commanders vs. Rams prediction
Despite losing to the Ravens, the Rams just might be the hottest team in the NFL. They won three straight games and then took arguably the best team in the AFC to overtime. They've now scored over 30 points against the two best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. That's ultra-impressive. They're now 10th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play and fourth in that stat over their last three games.
Now, they get to face one of the worst defenses in the league in the Commanders. Washington is 30th in Net Yards per Play, 32nd in opponent EPA per Play, and 32nd in opponent dropback EPA. If your secondary ranks dead last in opponent dropback EPA, you're going to have a long day against this Rams pass attack.
Hurry up and bet the Rams before this line potentially moves to -7.
Pick: Rams -6.5 (-110)
49ers vs. Cardinals prediction
The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL and there are oodles of metrics to back that claim up. Not only are they the clear Super Bowl favorites, but they're first in EPA per Play and sixth in opponent EPA per play.
If you want to dive into some more offensive metrics, they're first in success rate, first in dropback EPA, first in dropback success rate, fourth in rush success rate, and third in rush EPA. Boy oh boy this team is good.
The Cardinals got a mini spark when Kyler Murray returned to this lineup, but they're in over their head in this one. They're 31st in opponent dropback EPA and dead last in opponent dropback success rate. The 49ers offense is going to score at worse and I don't think Arizona's offense has enough to keep pace.
I'll lay the 13 points on San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers -13 (-110)
Cowboys vs. Bills prediction
Few people have been bigger Bills defenders than I have been this season. I truly believe a lot of their losses have been due to turnovers and some bad luck. The Chiefs being called offside on a potential game-winning play may have been a sign of the Bills' luck changing.
Their offense remains one of the best in the NFL. They're top five in every single EPA and success rate stat while also ranking fifth in yards per play (5.8). Their defense certainly has some issues, but they've been better of late.
Meanwhile, this is an all-time sell-high spot on the Cowboys after a handful of impressive wins. Unfortunately, the win against the Eagles isn't as good as the public perception has said it is considering I look at the Eagles as nothing but a "good but not great" team.
Keep an eye on the Bills rushing attack in this game. They're fourth in yards per carry and top five in rush EPA and success rate, while the Cowboys are 31st in opponent rush success rate.
I'll lay the two points on the Bills in this spot.
Pick: Bills -2 (-110)
Ravens vs. Jaguars prediction
With everyone realizing how fraudulent the Eagles are, it might just be the Jaguars who are now the most fraudulent team in the NFL. Even with Trevor Lawrence healthy, I have no faith in them and I think the Ravens are the far superior team. In Net Yards per Play, the Ravens rank third while the Jaguars come in at 22nd. Over their last three games, Jacksonville is 27th in Net Yards per Play at -0.7. Not good.
The Jaguars are trending in the wrong direction and the Ravens remain the best team in the AC. I'd set the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites in this one so I think we're getting a full point of value on them at -3.5.
Pick: Ravens -3.5 (-110)
Eagles vs. Seahawks prediction
If you think I'm going to stop betting against the Eagles, you're being a silly good. The betting market is still evaluating this team higher than they should be. Go back and listen/watch/read any of my content from the past two months if you want to know why I feel that way. I don't want to keep repeating myself, but their defense has become a straight-up bad unit.
For example, they're still dead last in opponent's third down conversion rate at 48.07%, which is 1.77% worse than the next worst team.
These two teams are right next to each other in Net Yards per Play at 0.0, but yet the home team is getting four points at some sportsbooks? Sign me up. I'll continue to fade Philadelphia until further notice.
Pick: Seahawks +4 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!