Road to 272 Bets - Super Bowl 58 Picks from NFL Expert
After a full season of watching and betting on football, and in my case betting on every single game, Super Bowl week is finally here!
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl 54 and while it may not be the most storyline-rich Super Bowl, it's still going to be an exciting game and the last one we can watch until next fall.
As I've been doing all season, I'm going to give you my best bets in this article. I'll give you my play on a side, total, and my three best prop bets. Let's dive into it.
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Super Bowl 58 Best Bets
49ers -2 vs. Chiefs
It may seem stupid to some people to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Let's all take a step back from these past two games, for both teams, and think about this season as a whole.
The 49ers, for the majority of the 2023 NFL campaign, was the best team in the NFL and if you didn't think they were the best, you would have slot them in at No. 2 behind only the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't just because of their record either. Let's look at where they rank in some key offensive metrics:
- Net Yards per Play: 1st
- EPA per Play: 1st
- Success rate: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Dropback success rate: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Rush success rate: 2nd
- Average scoring margin: 2nd
- Red zone offense: 1st
- Third down offense: 3rd
Those are some pretty solid numbers, if I do say so myself. They rank first offensive in just about every single category. Defensively, they're a little bit closer to the middle of the pack, but they still have allowed the third fewest points per game.
Let's also remember that they have the best weapon possible to attack the Chiefs' defensive weakness. Kansas City has allowed teams to run the ball against them all season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA and 23rd in opponent rush success rate. For some reason, the Ravens refused to run the football against them in the AFC Championship and it cost them.
Now, the 49ers have a chance to sick Christian McCaffrey on them. He may just drag this team to victory.
Is it concerning that they'll face this era's version of the GOAT in Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Is how the 49ers have come out in the first half in each of their two playoff games something to worry about? Yes.
With that being said, the 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season but yet are only 1.5-point favorites. We need to base our evaluation off a full season of games, not just the latest two.
I'll bet on the 49ers to get their revenge and win the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1994.
49ers vs. Chiefs UNDER 47.5
Instead of making a bet on a side in this game, I think the best bet to make is on the UNDER. It may not make for the most exciting game, but we need to bet with our brains and not our hearts.
The Chiefs and 49ers rank second and third in the NFL in opponent points per game. The Chiefs allow just 16.8 while the 49ers give up just 18.4, which is a combined points allowed per games of 35.2. That's 13 points fewer than what OVER bettors will need to cash their bet.
Let's also remember that this isn't the same version of the Chiefs that we've seen in years past that beat teams in offensive shootouts. They're now a defensive-driven team that does enough on offense, while not turning over the football, to win games. That's reflected in their OVER/UNDER record this season which is 14-6 to the UNDER, cashing the UNDER at a 70% rate. Only the Chargers and Panthers (70.6%) hit the UNDER at a higher rate.
There's no arguing about how elite the Chiefs defense is. They're in the top five in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and opponent Success rate while also giving up the fifth fewest yards per play.
Let's be smart about this. The UNDER is the bet to make.
Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards
Brock Purdy may have discovered his inner scrambler during these playoffs. He ran for 14 yards against the Packers and then ran for 48 yards against the Lions last week. There's plenty of reason to think that trend may continue in the Super Bowl.
With how good the Chiefs' secondary is, there's likely going to be times Purdy is going to drop back to pass and not find any of his receivers open. When that happens, he'll be forced to try to take off with his legs.
At just 12.5, I'll take the OVER on his rushing yards.
Harrison Butker OVER 7.5 kicking points
The Chiefs have struggled to convert red zone trips to touchdowns all season long. They rank 19th in red zone touchdown percentage, finding the end zone just 52.7% of the time when they get to their opponents red zone.
As a result, Butker has been a busy kicker this season, averaging 2.0 field goals per game. So, we need two field goals and two extra points, or perhaps three field goals, to cash this bet. Based on their red zone issues, I'd be surprised if Butker doesn't have at least two attempts in this game.
Nick Bosa UNDER 0.25 sacks
Nick Bosa has had a relatively down season when it comes to sacks. He has taken down the opposing quarterback just 10.5 times in 17 games throughout the regular season. Now, he and the 49ers have to take on one of the best offensive lines in the league that allows just 1.5 sacks per game.
Add in the fact that Patrick Mahomes seems near impossible to take down in the postseason, and we have ourselves a pretty solid bet. I'll bet on Bosa to not record even half a sack on Super Bowl Sunday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!