Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction and Odds (Trust Oddsmakers and Take the Under)

After a loss to the Thunder snapped a six-game winning streak, the 36-26 Denver Nuggets hope to get back in the win column as they host the 15-47 Houston Rockets tonight at 7:00 PM MST.

Denver has two wins over the Rockets already this season and is 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last 16 behind the stellar play of Nikola Jokic. Houston, meanwhile, has lost 11 in a row and covered just three times in that stretch.

Can the Rockets slow the Nuggets down to cover the large spread or will the power of Jokic prove too much to handle? Perhaps value lies in the total, instead?

Let's check out the odds via WynnBET:

Rockets vs Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Houston +13.5 (-110)
• Denver -13.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Houston +700
• Denver -1100

Total:

• 236 (Over 110/Under -110)

Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction and Pick

On the surface, this feels like a slam-dunk over play. Houston is horrific defensively. They're dead-last in defensive rating on the season at 116.1 and are somehow getting worse. Their rating is 121 over their last 15 games and that's helped the over go 9-5-1 in that stretch.

Jokic is unstoppable and engineers a high-powered Nuggets offense. Both teams play at a top-10 pace and the over has been a profitable play for both throughout the year.

But things aren't always as they seem on the surface. For me, this is a pure numbers play. Nothing significant has changed from these teams first two matchups. No major injuries or additions, just more games. In the first matchup, the total closed at 215 and in the second, it closed at 220. Now it's at 236?

I'm inclined to trust the oddsmakers' initial analysis of these squads. Both times, the final score went under 236, and Denver's defense has come on strong of late. The Nuggets are fifth in defensive rating over their last 15 and their offense has cooled to 10th from the 3rd-best overall ranking they posted in January.

The Rockets have only had two games close with a total this high since early January and I think the total is a bit of an overreaction. Denver has a tough schedule coming up with contests against the new-look Pelicans, Warriors, Raptors, 76ers, Cavaliers, and Celtics, and I think they'll take it a bit easier against a Houston team that's been a cake-walk opponent.

Give me the under as we take advantage of the value the previous matchups between these teams are presenting us.

Pick: Under 236 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.