The Colorado Rockies are 2-0 against the Atlanta Braves in their series in Atlanta as they look for the sweep Thursday evening at Truist Park.
Hold on, wait a second. That can't be right. Let me double check this again.
The Colorado Rockies are 2-0 on the RUN LINE against the Atlanta Braves tonight, looking for a 3-0 mark against the spread when Chad Kuhl matches up against rookie sensation Spencer Strider.
The Rockies are not scoring many runs, but they are keeping games awfully close despite being heavy underdogs. Over their last three games, Colorado has closed at +277, +305 and +281; winning two of those three games outright.
Tonight, they're at their largest number of the series, so are they a good bet to deliver for bettors again?
Here are the latest odds for tonight's matchup in Atlanta.
Rockies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total
Rockies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
At first glance, the pitching matchup looks completely lopsided. Strider has been brilliant all season, and even his sparkling 2.87 ERA doesn't even show how good he's been when you factor in a Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.04. He's striking out 13.33 batters per nine innings, and matches up against a Rockies' lineup that ranks second-to-last in weighted-on-base average (wOBA) on the road.
So why am I buying in on the Rockies to keep it close? Their pitching away from Coors Field has been outstanding, especially as of late. Over the last week with tough matchups vs. the New York Mets and now the Braves, they rank eighth in baseball with a 2.84 ERA, including the third-most strikeouts behind only the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres' staffs.
Chad Kuhl returned from the injured list on August 26 and held his own against a tough Mets lineup on the road; giving up three earned runs in five innings. The last time he faced the Braves, he went six scoreless innings in Colorado, so there's plenty of confidence in a return matchup.
Strider, while terrific, is known to have a blow-up game every so often. One of which game against these Rockies back on June 4; where he lasted just four innings while walking five batters. If his control gets out of whack, it could mean problems.
With Colorado's pitching staff locked in away from the bandbox in Denver, I expect another close game today, and don't mind throwing a dart on them to win outright.
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