Rockies vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Sunday, June 12 (Mistake-Prone Pitchers Lead to High-Scoring Affair)

The over is 7-2-1 in German Marquez's last 10 starts
The over is 7-2-1 in German Marquez's last 10 starts / Ezra Shaw/GettyImages

The 37-23 San Diego Padres host the 26-34 Colorado Rockies in the final game of a four-game series today at 4:10 PM EST.

San Diego saw their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday but are still 8-2 over their last 10. They'll send Blake Snell to the mound today, who gave up five runs in a loss to Mets in his last game. He's 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA through four outings.

German Marquez gets the call for Colorado coming off one of his better performances of the year. He limited the Giants to four hits and three runs over six solid innings though he still walked four.

Can either pitcher limit the opposing lineup or should bettors slam the over? Perhaps the Padres have value to stay hot?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to analyze this Rockies vs Padres series finale matchup:

Rockies vs Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rockies +1.5 (-130)
  • Padres -1.5 (+110)


  • Rockies: +165
  • Padres: -180


  • 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Rockies vs Padres Prediction and Pick

I wish there was a prop at WynnBET for "total walks allowed" because the over would be an easy bet in this one. Blake Snell ranks in the seventh percentile in walk rate and German Marquez has walked 11 over his last three starts. Neither pitcher has been impressive, to say the least.

Dating back to last season, the Padres are 1-9 in Snell's last 10 starts while the Rockies are 3-6 in Marquez's last nine this year.

With two struggling pitchers going to battle, I'm stunned the total is only 7.5. The over is 7-2-1 in Marquez's last 10 outings and Snell has a 6.75 ERA at home. San Diego may have only scored four runs over the last two games, but they were averaging 6.33 runs per game in June prior to that.

The over is 7-3 over San Diego's last 10 and I expect it that trend to continue thanks to a poor pitching matchup. When you struggle with command and walk a bunch of guys, you're just giving the opposing lineup too many chances to capitalize on a mistake. At the least, you're throwing extra pitches and getting your bullpen arms going quicker than you'd like.

There are no storms expected or crazy winds that would cause the total to fall, so I think this is just an overreaction to a pair of low-scoring games the last two days. Roll with the over to improve to 8-2-1 over Marquez's last 11 as each lineup takes advantage of mistake-prone starters.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.