Rory McIlroy PGA Championship Odds (Can He Win Again At Valhalla?)

Breaking down why Rory McIlroy can win this week's PGA Championship at Valhalla.
May 12, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Rory McIlroy looks over the fifth green during the
May 12, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Rory McIlroy looks over the fifth green during the / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

All eyes are on Rory McIlroy this week as the best golfers in the world head to Valhalla for the 2024 PGA Championship.

There has been a cloud over his head for the past decade as people anxiously await his next win at a major championship. The last time he won one, was at the very same place that is hosting this year's edition of the PGA Championship. Nobody would have thought when he won at Valhalla in 2014 that he'd have no major victories before the tournament would return to Kentucky a decade later.

It was McIlroy's second Major that season, also winning the Open Championship in July. He was the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world and all signs pointed to him dominating the world of golf for years to come. While he has won plenty of events since then, including being ranked No. 1 in the world at times, he has failed to come out on top any time he has teed it up at a major.

Does that finally change this week? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

Rory McIlroy Odds to Win the PGA Championship

The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Rory McIlroy +700

McIlroy is second on the odds list to win the PGA Championship at +700, which translates to an implied probability of 12.50%. Only Scottie Scheffler has better odds to win at +400 (20%).

Why Rory McIlroy WILL Win the PGA Championship

It's easy to point to Valhalla being the site of his most recent major victory as a reason we should expect McIlroy to win this week, but it's more than just his history at this course. He's also heading into this week's major in arguably the best form he's ever been in ahead of a major over the past decade.

The Northern Irishman has won two straight starts, including the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and last week's Wells Fargo Championship. He looked unstoppable at Quail Hollow, running away from the field and beating the runner-up, Xander Schauffele, by five strokes and the third place finished, Byeong Hun An, by eight strokes.

McIlroy's driving of the golf ball was fantastic, he was striping his irons, and his short game was as dialed in as we've seen in recent history.

Not only does he have the course history on his side this week, but he has the form to back it up.

Why Rory McIlroy WON'T Win the PGA Championship

You simply can't make the argument Rory doesn't have the physical tools and skills to win this week. The only argument against him breaking his major victory drought, and it's a strong one, is the mental side of the game.

Teeing it up at a major is a completely different animal compared to competing at a normal PGA Tour event and the longer he has gone without getting a major victory the more that pressure has mounted on his shoulders.

McIlroy has been in contention on Sundays at recent majors including the U.S. Open last year and the Open Championship in 2022, but he has melted in those spots. Sure, his form is dialed in, but what's the mental side of his game like? We won't know for sure unless he finds his name close to the top of the leaderboard on another major Sunday and until he can overcome that adversity, we should be wary about placing our money on him to get the job done.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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