Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Back Astros in Justin Verlander's Debut)
By Reed Wallach
Friday's MLB action kicks off a loaded weekend of baseball, including the return of one of the big league's best on the mound in Justin Verlander.
Verlander will make his season debut on Friday against the Washington Nationals as the Astros look to erase a slow start to 2024. Can he navigate an emerging Nationals lineup that has been more competitive than expected thi season?
Here's our picks for EVERY game on the Friday night slate:
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Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Marlins (+150)
With the Cubs returning from the west coast, and set to start Jameson Taillon in his season debut, I’ll take a stab on the Marlins as big underdogs on Friday afternoon.
Angels vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-125)
I’ll grab the Reds at home as small favorites against left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Angels. Los Angeles’ starter has been fantastic to start the year, pitching to a 1.47 ERA, but his underlying metrics show that he may be due for some regression, posting a 3.59 xERA and a hard hit percentage of 26%, bottom half of the big leagues.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-105)
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello continues to improve year-over-year, and I like him in a coin-flip game against the Pirates, who have been below average in OPS to start the season.
White Sox vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-185)
The White Sox continued to be priced as a below average team, when they are in fact far worse.
Astros vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-170)
In Justin Verlander’s debut, this should be a great spot for the Astros to continue to get back on track after a slow start to the year. Houston ranks inside the top five in OPS against left-handed pitching as well, setting up for a strong matchup against MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals.
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+135)
While New York is off to a stellar start, Tampa Bay is just as capable with a left-hander on the mound in Tyler Alexander, who has done a fine job of limiting hard contact thus far, ranking in the 88th percentile in terms of exit velocity to start the year.
The Yankees crush the ball but are outside the top 10 in OPS against lefties, so I’m eager to back the underdog on the road Friday night.
Athletics vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-170)
While Triston MacKenzie gives me pause, a 6.23 ERA, the Guardians offense has proven to be reliable all season, eighth in batting average as a team at .251. I believe the team can generate enough offense against Oakland’s porous pitching staff to get a win.
Rangers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (+170)
In a battle of two elite teams, I’ll take the long price on the Rangers. Both teams are inside the top five in batting average and OPS this season, but I think there’s too much talent in Texas to overlook this price tag.
Orioles vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+120)
The Royals are a playoff contender, but the market continues to underrate them. Granted the Orioles are the reigning AL Champions, but Dean Kremer’s xERA is 6.40.
Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (+125)
The Twins offense is a grave concern, last in batting average this season and will face a capable pitcher in Jack Flaherty. Give me Detroit as underdogs.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-130)
Freddy Peralta is off to a fantastic start to 2024, pricing to a 2.55 ERA while limiting his walk rate to a stellar 3% this season. Locked in like this, Peralta is as good as anybody in the big leagues on the mound. I’ll back the Brew Crew as road favorites.
Mariners vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-135)
I expect Seattle, who is bottom 10 in OPS to start the season, to get on track in the hitter’s park of Coors Field.
Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-115)
The Padres offense may be too much of a test for rookie Yariel Rodriguez, who only pitched 3.2 innings in his start of his career.
Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+165)
The Mets are in good form after an 0-5 start to the year, winners of 10 of the last 13 games. The Dodgers of course bolster an elite lineup, but are just 11th in OPS against left handed pitching, which the team will face in Sean Manaea on Friday night.
I’ll take a stab at the big underdog.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+110)
Blake Snell is still acclimating after missing all of Spring Training, and this is a tough matchup against a Diamondbacks lineup that rakes against lefties. Arizona is second in OPS against southpaws this season, I’m happy to back the underdogs.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.