Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Cubs Hand Astros Another Loss)
By Reed Wallach
It's not a full slate of Major League Baseball, but we have some high-level matchups across the diamond starting with some afternoon games!
The Astros are off to a shockingly poor start, and it may not get easier in Chicago as the team faces a budding Cubs team that continues to be underrated in the betting market. Can the team win as home underdogs?
Here's a pick for that game and EVERY game on Thursday!
New FanDuel Sportsbook users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets as soon as you make a first bet of just $5! Get started below.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-130)
Mitch Keller remains a prime fade candidate, who hasn’t recaptured last season's form, posting a 4.80 ERA with a 17th-percentile hard-hit percentage.
The Brewers offense isn’t stellar but does have a massive talent edge on the mound with Freddy Peralta set to continue his strong start to the season, posting a 1.90 ERA.
White Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-225)
The futility of the White Sox has hit an all-time high, now 3-21 on the year. I can’t trust this team against any team as the reclamation project of Mike Soroka has not gotten off to a strong start. The former Braves starter has a 7.50 ERA to start the year.
Phillies vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+130)
Zack Wheeler is a true Cy Young candidate, but this is a lofty price on the road for the Phillies to cover with Nick Martinez showing promising underlying metrics. The veteran pitcher has made four appearances and two starts on the year and has an xERA of 3.54 while walking less than 3% of batters.
I’ll take a stab on the Reds as home underdogs.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (+130)
Boston and Cleveland are each above-average hitting lineups, so I'm eager to fade Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie. After missing most of last season, the righty has posted a 5.00 ERA with a 5.68xERA that is paired with an 18% walk rate and 13% strikeout rate.
The numbers are too poor to trust him as a big home favorite.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-120)
Jose Berrios continues to skate by with lingering regression on the horizon. He has a 0.85 ERA while showcasing a 98th percentile run value, but his underlying metrics are a tough look. He has an xERA of 4.25 and the Royals top half offense should be able to hand some of that lingering drop-off at home.
Astros vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (+105)
The Astros enter Thursday’s game at 7-18, and while the team has plenty of talent, this team may need to start being judged on its season-long metrics, which isn’t worthy of a road favorite against a Cubs lineup that is just as talented at the plate.
Chicago is sixth in OPS and Houston is seventh, but the Astros are still stretching out Justin Verlander, who is making his second start of the year.
I’ll trust the Cubbies at home.
Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (+100)
The Mariners are hitting .218 against lefties, so I give Rangers pitcher Andrew Heaney a noted advantage at home.
While Mariners starter Luis Castillo is as talented as there is in the American League, I need to give the edge to the home underdogs.
Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-145)
The Padres are full of hitters that draw walks at a high rate, fifth in walks this season, which will be impactful against a streaky Dakota Hudson of the Rockies. Hudson has a walk rate north of 13%, 26th percentile, and can’t strike anybody out, 4th percentile.
I’ll lay the lumber on San Diego.
Dodgers vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+160)
I can’t trust Yoshinobu Yamamoto just yet.
He has a 32% strikeout rate, but teams have been able to string together base runners against him, posting a 4.50 ERA that is supported by an xERA 4.07.
It’s a big price on the road against a Nations team that is hovering around league average in terms of on-base percentage.
Athletics vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-270)
The Yanks are correctly priced against a poor A’s team that is starting a struggling Alex Wood (7.89 ERA) on Thursday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.