Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Kevin Gausman's Poor Start Continues)
By Reed Wallach
After some traveling around the country, all Major League Baseball teams take the diamond on Tuesday.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups to dive into, but what happened to Kevin Gausman? The Blue Jays starter who has been a consistent Cy Young threat in Toronto has fallen off to start 2024, will he get on track against the Royals?
Below, I break down that game and EVERY game on Tuesday!
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Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-110)
This game is being lined like a coin flip, but I’ll side with the home team that is starting Ben Lively, who has been just fine to start the season, striking out a career-best 37% of batters he faces and walking about 5%. He’s been more than fine in terms of allowing runs, posting a 3.60 ERA, but he can do even better, posting a 1.98 xERA.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-105)
Pittsburgh will send out Bailey Falter to beat the Brewers in hopes that the Pirates get a second straight NL Central win, and I like the matchup for the left-hander against a Brewers team that is hitting .211 against southpaws and is 25th in OPS.
Phillies vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-125)
The Reds couldn’t hit a left-hander on Monday in a 7-0 loss, and I think it might look similar on Tuesday, where Cincinnati is set to face Cristopher Sanchez, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season at keeping the ball on the ground (95th percentile in ground ball rate), which is impactful at a hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Dodgers vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-205)
Happy to fade Patrick Corbin against the best lineup in baseball.
The left-hander has an ERA of 8.06 and has an xBA of .336 and is walking batters at north of 7% and has a strikeout percentage well below 20%. The Dodgers will find answers to win this game comfortably.
Tigers vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (-165)
While this price seems steep for two competitive teams, Ryan Pepiot is set to thrive against a poor Tigers lineup. Pepiot has a 93rd percentile whiff percentage while striking out batters at north of a 30% clip.
The Tigers have leaned on good pitching, but Kenta Maeda isn’t providing that, posting an ERA north of 7.00.
Athletics vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (+180)
It’s a big number to get to bet Paul Blackburn, who has been posting strong metrics all season, including a “pitching run value” in the 99th percentile. While the Yankees have a ton of power, and are a far more talented team, I’ll take the big number.
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Braves (-250)
The best team in the NL East faces off against the worst, and while his number look poor, I believe Max Fried can get his season on track here against a Marlins team that is hitting .199 against left handed pitching.
White Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-270)
I can’t trust the White Sox, even against a struggling Pablo Lopez. The Twins starter hasn’t had his best in 2024, but still only has a 3.97 ERA. He’ll face a Chicago lineup that is hitting .190 on the year.
I’m not banking on an upset here.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+105)
There’s not a lot to like from Kevin Gausman in his first four starts, who has posted an 8.16 ERA with diminished velocity and ability to work around batters. He is in the 2nd percentile in xBA and has allowed a hard-hit percentage in the 21st percentile.
Kansas City’s lineup is an above-average hitting lineup and is inside the top 10 in terms of OPS at home, I think they continue to deal Gausman a ton of hurt this season.
Astros vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-105)
Two struggling pitchers take the mound with the Astros starting J.P. France (7.08 ERA) and Jordan Wicks (5.29 ERA). Both pitchers are due some positive regression, but I’m more focused on what happens when both starters leave the game.
The Cubs bullpen is far worse, bottom five in ERA this season, and I believe late in the game the Astros' potent offense around the likes of Kyle Tucker can pull away late.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (-105)
Tommy Henry doesn’t inspire confidence with his 6.87 ERA, but Steven Matz has some concerning underlying metrics. The Cardinals starter has an offspeed run value that grades out in the 1st percentile with an xERA of 4.75 which is well higher than 3.60.
Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (-105)
This is a lot of respect for a Mariners team that is 23rd in OPS. While the team will start an above-average arm in Logan Gilbert (2.33 ERA), Dane Dunning is more than capable with a 3.91 ERA and a top-10 offense in terms of OPS on the year.
As a slight home underdog, happy to back the Rangers.
Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+140)
The Padres have the talent edge, but the Rockies lineup may be able to find success against Michael King, who is in the 17th in barrel percentage allowed and 38th percentile in groundball rate. Considering he’ll be pitching in Coors Field, where balls fly, this can be a bad outing from the starter.
Orioles vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-160)
Grayson Rodriguez is an emerging name to keep an eye on in the big leagues as a key cog in the Orioles pitching rotation (2.63 ERA), and I believe Baltimore is justified as a big road favorite.
Even if Griffin Canning pitches well starting for the Angels, the team’s bottom-five bullpen ERA will cost the home team.
Mets vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+115)
While Logan Webb is a household name at the top of the Giants rotation, he has some concerning underlying metrics, posting an 4.75 xERA that far exceeds a 2.94 ERA. Further, he has an xBA of .316 which is concerning against the Mets that has come into its own, ninth in on-base percentage.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.