Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Yankees Best Astros at Home)
By Reed Wallach
We have a full slate of Major League Baseball on Tuesday as every team is in action in the early week series.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups, but postseason rivals do battle in the Bronx when the floundering Astros attempt to erase a slow start to the season against the Yankees. New York figures to be in the American League Pennant race all season, can it continue to push down the Astors, who are 10 games under .500, but have a now healthy Justin Verlander on the mound on Tuesday?
Here’s our picks for EVERY game on the Tuesday card!
Rangers vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (-125)
I’m going to trust the Rangers on the road due to its edge at the plate. Texas is 12th in OPS at over .700 while the A’s are 22nd at .664.
Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-125)
Two elite pitching units meet in Cleveland, but this is the weaker part of each with Kenta Maeda starting for the Tigers (5.02) against the Guardians, who will start left-hander Logan Allen (-125).
With that in mind, I’ll side with the home team who has the more complete offense and is 11-5 at home.
Angels vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-130)
Pittsburgh has struggled of late but is potent against lefty pitching, 11th in OPS. The team draws a start against the poor Angels, who are starting Patrick Sandoval, who has a 5.91 ERA behind a near-11% walk rate.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+110)
Zac Gallen is a stud pitcher, but this Diamondbacks team can’t be trusted, 6-10 on the road and posting the sixth-worst bullpen ERA this season.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-125)
The Blue Jays continue to underwhelm this season while the Phillies are looking like a contender in the National League yet again. Behind a talented lineup and a strong pitching staff that is fifth in bullpen ERA so far this season.
For reference, Toronto has the fifth highest ERA as a bullpen.
Orioles vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+180)
While Corbin Burnes is a fixture in the AL Cy Young conversation early in the season, the Nationals are worthy of a bet at this price as home underdogs.
Trevor Williams has been outstanding to start the year, posting a 2.27 ERA with a low walk rate. Washington is right around the big league average in OPS (18th) and can be frisky in this matchup, and enough for an underdog wager.
White Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (-250)
I’m not interested in backing the White Sox, who have the lowest OPS as a team this season.
Astros vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-120)
I like the Yankees at home, as we are getting a good price on emerging rookie Luis Gil, who has showcased an elite blend of pitching and potent punch-out pitch (30.8% K rate).
Gil has struggled with walks this season (15% BB rate), but the Astros are 20th in total walks this season.
Meanwhile, Justin Verlander is still getting stretched out after missing the start of the season and the bullpen has been a nightmare, unlike most years, second worst in terms of ERA on the year.
These two teams aren’t equal.
Red Sox vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (+150)
I’ll fade Braves pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 1.50 ERA through five starts this season, but has an xERA of 3.23, mainly because he allows a ton of hard contact. Lopez ranks in the 22nd percentile in hard-hit percentage.
This price is too wide to trust this type of pitching splits for Lopez.
Brewers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-125)
Seth Lugo has been one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball to start the year, posting a 1.60 ERA despite a lowly 17% strikeout rate.
While Lugo could take a step back throughout a season, I’m going to trust this Royals lineup that can knock around Colin Rea, who is in the bottom 15th percentile in key pitching metrics like xBA, xERA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage.
Trust the home team.
Mariners vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (+125)
The Twins are on a 12-game winning streak, but I’ll sell high at a big price against a Mariners team that can out-pace the home team on the mound. Seattle is second in bullpen ERA while the Twins are closer to league average.
Padres vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-155)
Shota Imanaga continues to dazzle in his rookie campaign, posting a 0.78 ERA as a left-handed magician on the mound.
While the Padres draw a ton of walks to generate its offense, the Cubs starter has been incredible at limiting free bases, 96th percentile in walk rate.
Mets vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+100)
The Cardinals rank 28th in OPS this season, I can’t trust them against an above-average Mets team across the board. New York is 16th in OPS, 12th and bullpen ERA, and has a capable starter in Jose Butto on the mound (2.57 ERA).
Giants vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+135)
There’s too much variance on the mound to lay a number on the Giants this expensive.
Kyle Harrison has allowed a ton of hard contact for the Giants, and the left-hander can be ripe to be knocked around against the Rockies at Coors Field, who are 13th in OPS against southpaws.
Marlins vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-340)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has settled in after a rocky start to his big league career.
After allowing five earned runs against the Padres in his first start, Yamamoto has allowed six earned runs in the following five starts.
He’ll face a Marlins team that is hitting .218 as a unit, 25th in Major League Baseball.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.