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Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Yankees Stay Hot at Home vs. Mariners)

By Reed Wallach

May 19, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two run home
May 19, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two run home / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
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The new week gets underway in Major League Baseball with a handful of games, including some afternoon baseball with a doubleheader in Atlanta. 

However, all eyes will be on the surging Yankees, who are lapping the competition at the moment with the top two AL MVP candidates in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. At home, New York gets some playoff competition with a formidable Mariners team coming to the Bronx. 

Here are my betting thoughts on the Yankees vs. Mariners game as well as each game on Monday’s big league slate!

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Padres vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Padres (+105)

The first of two games on Monday pits Dylan Cease of the Padres against Reynaldo Lopez of the Braves. 

I’ll trust Cease, who has gotten off to a strong start in San Diego this season, to keep it rolling on the road. While the Braves offense is dangerous, Cease is in the 93rd percentile in xBA and is striking out more than 32% of batters. 

Lopez has been great this season but is outperforming his actual pitching. He has an xERA of 3.71, far higher than his dazzling 1.34 ERA while walking more than 10% of batters. 

White Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: White Sox (+170)

I’ll take a stab at the White Sox against a floundering Blue Jays team with Jose Berrios on the mound. 

Berrios has impressive numbers on the surface, posting a 2.82 ERA through nine starts, he has an xERA of 4.59 as his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie season in 2016. He is skating by with some good variance on balls in play, but teams are making hard contact on him. Berrios is in the 11th percentile in average exit velocity, so I’ll fade him as a big favorite. 

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Mets (+110)

The Guardians have built its record up on the backs of solid pitching, but the team has been quiet at the plate for most of May, hitting only .222 as a group, 24th in the big leagues. 

New York has slipped of late as well, now four games under .500, but the team still has a top-half bullpen and power littered throughout the lineup, I’ll grab the visitors as small underdogs. 

Padres vs. Braves Prediction and Pick Game 2

  • Pick: Braves (-225)

Chris Sale is pitching at an All-Star level with the Braves and draws a favorable matchup against the Padres, who are 24th in OPS against lefties this season.

Brewers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Marlins (+115)

The Marlins have struggled all season, but the Brewers hit only .229 against left-handers, which plays into Miami starter Ryan Weathers's hands. 

Milwaukee has power, but Weathers is 76th percentile in terms of generating ground ball percentage, so I’m confident he can limit the damage enough to back the home underdogs. 

Twins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Nationals (+140)

I’ll back Washington as home underdogs with promising prospect Mitchell Parker taking the mound. 

The Twins have plenty of pop in the lineup, but Parker has been up to the test in his rookie season, limiting his walk rate to 5% and posting an ERA of 3.09, supported by an xERA of 3.82. 

At this price, it's enough for me to trust Parker.

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Red Sox (-105)

These two teams are close to equal in a bunch of stats, including OPS, but I give the edge to the Boston pitching staff, who is second in bullpen ERA and will have the more reliable starter in Tanner Houck on the mound (2.17 vs. 3.39 xERA) against Taj Bradley (2.46 vs. 7.24)

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Yankees (-140)

The Yankees are a wagon. 

The Bronx Bombers are tops in the big leagues in OPS this month as Aaron Judge has found his MVP form this month, hitting .386 with seven home runs.

I’ll back the home team at a modest price. 

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Royals (-120)

The Royals offense has more ability to put runs on the board, top 10 in runs scored when compared to the Tigers, who are 21st in the same category. 

At home, where Kansas City is 18-8 on the year, I’ll back the Royals as a small home favorite. 

Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Orioles (+105)

Sonny Gray has been stellar this season, striking out more than 32% of batters with a 3.05 ERA, but I’m going to side with the Orioles, who are 6-1 as underdogs this season and are the more complete roster. 

Baltimore has a pair of MVP contenders in Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutchsman while the Cardinals have been struggling to find consistency at the plate all season. On the year, Baltimore is fourth in OPS while St. Louis is 24th in the same metric.

Angels vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Astors (-200)

Houston has a significant talent edge on the mound and at the plate with Framber Valdez set to outclass Reid Detemers and a limited Angels offense that is middle of the pack in OPS as a unit. 

Meanwhile, Houston should rake at home, top five in OPS. 

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

  • Pick: Dodgers (-230)

After having his start moved back a day, Yoshinobu Yamamoto should look the part of an NL Rookie of the Year candidate against the Diamondbacks. 

After two disastrous starts to begin his big league career, Yamamoto has posted a 2.59 ERA in seven starts while allowing a batting average of .210. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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