Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Back Brewers as Underdogs)
By Reed Wallach
The weekend gives us plenty of baseball throughout the day, and we are hitting the whole board.
There are plenty of high level baseball matchups, including the ongoing saga of the Astros trying to erase a terrible start to the year. However, the Brewers offense has been a pleasant surprise this season and are in line to beat the Astros yet again.
We have bets for each game on the card, don't miss them out below!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
White Sox vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-305)
The White Sox simply don’t have the firepower to hang with the Yankees, the team is last in on-base percentage this season, while New York checks in third.
Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-200)
Forget NL Rookie of the Year, Shota Imananga looks like a Cy Young contender with his devastating 0.96 ERA through eight stats.
I believe he can overwhelm a limited Pirates offense that is 24th in on-base percentage this season.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+115)
Toronto has been one of the most underwhelming teams in the big leagues this season, and Kevin Gausman is at the center of it.
The former Cy Young contender looks anything but this season, posting a 4.95 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. With his inability to find strikeouts, his underlying metrics indicate he’s getting fairly lucky, posting an xERA of 5.56.
I’ll happily fade him on Saturday.
Mariners vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-110)
Two of the bright young teams in the big leagues meet at Camden Yards on Saturday, and I’m siding with the home team at a coin toss price.
While the Mariners have been on a tear, the Orioles are the far superior team, especially in this setup with Cole Irvin on the mound. The left hander has been pitching at a high level this season, and the Mariners struggle against southpaws, hitting only .229 as a unit.
While Luis Castillo has been strong this season, I’ll side with the more complete lineup top to bottom, fourth in OPS.
Rockies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+160)
I can’t trust the Giants as big favorites in this matchup with a pair of lefties starting on each side.
Kyle Harrison hasn’t taken the next step that the Giants had hoped so far, striking out about a league average strikeout rate while being prone to allowing hard contact at a bottom 30th percentile.
Meanwhile, Ty Blach may not pitch a full serving of innings, he’s started two games of five appearances, but his ability to limit hard contact gives me confidence against a Giants team that is bottom 10 in batting average against lefties.
Blach is 64th in ground ball percentage with 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage, so I believe the team can outperform this price tag.
Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-135)
The Mets are slumping, but I like this set up for New York to get back on track against a limited Marlins offense that has the second lowest OPS in the big leagues.
Luis Severino should keep the runs to the minimum, finding his fastball after battling injuries over the last few years, ranking in the 92nd percentile in fastball run value. He is walking a ton of batters, but the Marlins won’t challenge Severino so he can find the strike zone with more confidence.
Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-180)
Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the bigs and we are getting a great price to back the Phillies at home.
The team rakes against lefties, top five in OPS and has a top three bullpen to back up Cristopher Sanchez. Meanwhile, the Nats are bottom three in OPS against left handers.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
PicK: Guardians (-105)
I simply don’t see enough to justify the Twins being road favorites against a Cleveland team that has a top 10 bullpen and has a lineup that is comparable at the dish.
Neither team is hitting the ball all that well, each team is bottom 10 in on-base percentage in the month of May, so I’ll trust the home team.
Athletics vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-185)
Seth Lugo has made an early case for AL Cy Young, ranking in the 99th in pitching run value this season while posting an elite 1.66 ERA.
He should keep down an Athletics lineup at home while the Royals tee off against Ross Stripling, who hasn’t been able to work around lineups just yet due to his 14% strikeout rate (eighth percentile).
Brewers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (+125)
The Astros continue to be overvalued, especially against a team that can match Houston’s ability at the plate.
Houston is an elite offense, but Milwauaukee has proven to be as well. The Brewers are top five in on-base percentage in th month of May, and should challenge Justin Verlander from the first pitch, who has seen his strikeout rate dwindle below 20% and his walk rate balloon over 10%, both in the bottom 30th percentile this season.
It doesn’t help that the Astros have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, so if Verlander is chased early, this game can get sideways quickly.
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-120)
It’s tough to trust the Cardinals against any team at a near pick ‘em price, and even more difficult with Miles Mikolas on the mound.
The right hander is striking out only 16% of batters and when he can punch them out, hitters are finding plenty of answers, posting an xBA of .299 and an xSLG of .500.
Boston has been about league average this month at the plate, but the team has been strong as a unit on the mound, including starter Kutter Crawford, who is limiting damage through his elite fastball that ranks in the 97th percentile.
Angels vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+115)
Texas continues to struggle, especially against lefty pitchers, which the team will face on Saturday in Patrick Sandoval.
Further, I can’t trust Jose Urena, the Rangers starter, who is striking out only 15% of batters.
Padres vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (+100)
San Diego has the firepower to put pressure on the Braves in Atlanta, mainly because of pitcher Bryce Elder.
Elder has struggled this season, posting a 4.79 ERA that should be worse in reality, posting a 5.24 xERA. He is posting a career worst .289 xBA and has been knocked around all season by hard contact, ninth percentile, which is dangerous against a Padres lineup with power littered all over.
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (+125)
Jack Flaherty has been outstanding in his first season with the Tigers, posting a 3.88 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate. He has been on the wrong side of some hitting luck, his xERA is 2.98, and I believe he can out-perform Zac Gallen on the road with his ability to overpower hitters.
Reds vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-225)
It hasn’t been the best return for Walker Buehler, who hasn’t been able to pitch more than four innings in either of his first two starts returning from injury, allowing six earned runs and three home runs.
However, I’ll back LA at home, who has the offense to cause issues for this Reds pitching staff, namely starter Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has been shaky all season, striking out only 18% of batters with an eight percent walk rate.
I’ll trust Buehler to get on track and for the Dodgers offense to find answers.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.