Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet on Pirates in Paul Skenes MLB Debut?)
By Reed Wallach
The much hyped debut of No. 1 overall pick Pual Skenes is coming sooner than expected.
The LSU product has breezed through the minor leagues and will make his big league debut on Saturday in Pittsburgh as the Pirates host the Cubs. We have a bet on that game as well as every game on the card as we get set for a loaded MLB slate.
Here's a breakdown for all 15 MLB games on Saturday with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (+135)
I can’t trust Kevin Gausman just yet. His 3.78 is supported on shaky ground, he is striking out the fewest batters of his career dating back to 2018 (21%) and has an xERA of 5.02.
I’m going to trust the Twins, who are top 10 in OPS since the start of May and are 8-2 over the last 10 games.
Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-105)
I’ll buy the Paul Skenes hype in his professional debut. After blowing away batters in the minor leagues, I’ll take Skenes to impress against a Cubs team that is league average in terms of OPS in front of the home crowd at an underdog price.
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+145)
John Means is expected to start in this one, his second start of the year after a stellar first outing of seven innings with zero earned runs and eight strikeouts.
However, Arizona is the best lineup in baseball against lefties, so I’m inclined to take the visitors at a massive underdog price.
Nationals vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-155)
The Nationals simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with Boston, who will start promising pitcher Cooper Criswell (1.74 ERA through four starts) and has the best bullpen in the majors in terms of ERA.
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+100)
I’ll trust Zack Littell, who has been fantastic to start the season, to keep down the Yankees lineup.
Littlell has a 3.00 ERA, but is even better than that, posting a 2.93 xERA with an elite ability to allow soft contact thus far. He is in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and is walking only 3% of batters through seven starts.
Give me the home underdogs with a high upside to pull one over the Yankees.
Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+135)
I’ll look to cash in on the Braves slump while I can and the team rounds into form. In May, the team is flirting with the Mendoza line at .200 as a unit during this small sample.
At the moment, I can’t trust the Braves as big road favorites.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-130)
While Taijuan Walker presents concern on the mound early on, 6.39 ERA in only three starts after beginning the year on the injured list, I can’t ‘look past the difference in team quality.
The Phillies are second in OPS, seventh against left handed pitching, while the Marlins rank 29th as a unit.
Astros vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (+115)
Houston is equipped to keep up with Tarik Skubal, who has been an AL Cy Young candidate this season, posting the fourth best OPS against southpaws this season.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-165)
Triston McKenzie has settled in after a poor start to the 2024 season, and I like him to keep it rolling against a White Sox team that is hitting .185 as a group this season.
On the other side, Mike Clevinger hasn’t recaptured his form since he left Cleveland, battling injuries constantly. He has made only one start this season and it lasted two innings. He isn’t in form right now to keep down an above average offense like the Guardians.
Reds vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-115)
Nick Lodolo has promising numbers this season, ranking in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage while forcing a ton of ground ball contact.
While the Giants will hope that prospect Mason Black can improve on his first start of his career, allowing five earned runs in four-and-a-third innings pitched, I can’t trust San Francisco, who has the third highest bullpen ERA in the big leagues this season.
Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-175)
I’m going to keep fading the Cardinals, who are hitting below .200 in the month of May, dropping eight of the last 10 games and falling to last place in the NL Central.
It won’t get easier against the hard throwing Freddy Peralta, who is striking out 32% of batters (92nd percentile) and ranks in the 76th percentile in terms of pitching run value.
Rangers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+140)
Better days are ahead of Ryan Feltner, who is pitching far better than his 5.54 ERA indicates, posting a 3.38 xERA and doing a good job of avoiding home runs. That’s pivotal against the Rangers, who generate a ton of hard contact and play in the thin air of Coors Field.
I’ll take the big underdog price on Colorado.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (+125)
Following a walk off win on Friday night, I like the Padres to keep it rolling on Saturday against James Paxton of the Dodgers, who has been skating by in 2024.
The left hander has solid surface level metrics like a 3.06 ERA, but hasn’t been able to find his punch out pitch, posting a 12% strikeout rate with a 17% walk rate, one of the few pitchers in the big leagues walking more batters than striking him out. With the ball constantly being put in play, Paxton’s xERA sits at 5.98.
Against a Padres team that is top five in walk rate, I think this game can tilt towards San Diego quickly.
Royals vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-145)
The Angels won’t have the firepower to combat Cole Ragans and his fastball that is producing a ton of run value (87th percentile). He is striking out nearly 30% of the batters he is facing while limiting hard contact.
Athletics vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-210)
Seattle is in a good spot to keep building towards a Wild Card berth with Bryce Miller on the mound against the out-matched Athletics. Miller is a hard throwing righty who has posted a 2.61 ERA through seven starts.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.