Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Braves vs. Dodgers Best Bet)

May 3, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA;  Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) is
May 3, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) is / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

As the weekend presses on, we are on the hunt for some baseball wagers. 

While finding information on all 15 Major League Baseball games on a Saturday, you’ve come to the right place. We have a bet with a write up on each game on the slate, including the continuation of the Braves vs. Dodgers series after the first went to extra innings on Friday night. Who has the edge on Saturday? 

Keep reading to find out!

Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+135)

The Yankees have the more dangerous lineup, but I give the pitching edge to the Tigers, who will start Casey Mize and his elite control (5% walk rate). For the Yankees, the team will turn to Clarke Schmidt, who has a 10% walk rate with a ton of underlying regression. 

He has a 3.19 ERA, which seems strong on the surface, but Schmidt has an xERA of 4.65.

Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-180)

The Twins have now won 11 in a row, and I don’t think it's stopping Saturday with Pablo Lopez in line to start. 

Lopez, the projected ace in the Minnesota rotation, has struggled to start the year, but he still is punching out more than 29% of batters he’s facing while walking about 5%. He has elite metrics and a nasty fastball (76th percentile in terms of run value). All that equates to a xERA that is nearly two runs lower (4.83 ERA vs. 2.97 xERA). 

I think we see Lopez trend upwards and the Twins to notch another win.

White Sox vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+150)

It’s tough to trust the lowly White Sox, but Lance Lynn of the Cardinals can’t be trusted. He’s walking the most batters of his career since 2018 (nearly 10%) and is allowing a ton of hard contact (opponents are barreling up his pitches at a near-13% clip). 

The White Sox lineup is among the worst in baseball, but the team will have one of its reliable starters on the mound in Erick Fedde, who has an ERA of 2.60 and an xBA of .216.

I’ll take a stab at Chicago as big underdogs.

Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (+105)

I’ll take the Brewers as small underdogs, who will start Tobias Myers on Saturday. 

This matchup sets up nicely for the Brew Crew rookie, who has been elite at generating swings and misses, in the 97th percentile this season. The Cubs are bottom five in the big leagues as a team in terms of chase percentage, so I believe Milwaukee can get out to an early lead behind the arm of the promising rookie.

Blue Jays vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+140)

Kevin Gausman’s numbers have come down, but the concern remains high. He has put together some better starts, but his xERA still sits at 5.77 and he is striking out batters at a sub-19% clip, the lowest of his career. 

Until we see Gausman turn it on, I’m going to continue to fade him. 

Rockies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (-205)

Rookie Jared Jones has put up gaudy stats on the mound for Pittsburgh, but I’m more interested in backing the Pirates, who are top 10 in OPS against left handed pitching this season. The team faces Austin Gomber of the Rockies on Saturday, who is backed up by a bottom five bullpen in terms of ERA. 

The Pirates should avenge a series opening loss to the Rockies. 

Marlins vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+105)

Trevor Rodgers has been steady for the Marlins on the mound, doing a good job of inducing ground balls and limiting blow-up innings. He’ll face an Athletics’ team that struggles a ton against left handed pitching, hitting .208 against southpaws, so I’m inclined to take the Fish as underdogs. 

Giants vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (+155)

San Francisco is league average against left handed pitching, and I’ll take a shot on the visitors as big underdogs against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. 

Ranger Suarez has been elite to start the year, posting a 1.32 ERA with an elite walk rate (3.5%), but this number is quite high against a competent offense. 

Angels vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-145)

While Reid Detmers has been great this season on the mound for the Angels, the lefty has a 3.12 ERA, the gap in hitting is staggering between the two clubs. 

Without Mike Trout, the Angels lineup that is league average in OPS is going to continue trending downwards against a Guardians group that is 12th in the bigs at .708.

Orioles vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-120)

Baltimore is top five in the league in OPS overall (.754), but does its best against lefties, posting the second best OPS (.825). The team should give Andrew Abbott fits all evening. 

Rangers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-105)

The Royals continue to be mis-priced, a team with league average hitting and above average pitching staff. Further, the team is fantastic at home, posting a 13-5 record to date. 

Mets vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+100)

The Rays took the opener of this series, 10-8, but I’m expecting water to find its level and for the Mets to get back on track. Tampa Bay lacks the power to take advantage in back-to-back games, 22nd in OPS.

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-140)

Seattle struggles against left handed pitching, 26th in OPS and hitting only .211 against southpaws, and I envision it continues against Framber Valdez of the Astros, who showed no signs of issues in his first start back from injury.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-125)

I’ll trust Brandon Pfaadt to find his form faster than Michael King. 

Pfaadt has showcased strong control, a 4% walk rate, and strong underlying metrics, posting a 3.10 xERA vs. a 4.63 ERA.

Braves vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (+150)

Tyler Glasnow is a Cy Young candidate (2.72), but I can’t justify this price tag against a Braves team that has the only offense near the potency of the Dodgers. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.