Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Can Framber Valdez Get Astros on Track?)
By Reed Wallach
The weekend of baseball gets underway on Friday night with a full serving of Major League Baseball games across the country.
There will be plenty of arm talent on display on Friday, including now healthy left hander Framber Valdez of the Astros taking the mound against the Tigers, as well as Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers trying to firm up his NL Cy Young case, but could face a tricky matchup against the Padres in San Diego.
There’s plenty of other action on the diamond, here’s our best bet for every single game!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Astros vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-135)
Houston continues to flounder record wise, 12-24, but the team is flush with talent both on the mound and at the dish.
The bullpen remains a concern, but Framber Valdez appears stretched out and ready to contribute, posting a 3.97 ERA in four starts and will face a Tigers team that struggles to generate runs, 22nd in runs scored.
Meanwhile, Houston has a potent offense that is top 10 in OPS. I think the team gets on track this weekend, starting with a strong Valdez outing.
Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (+120)
There is a talent gap between these two teams, and the better team is the underdog.
The Pirates have the third lowest OPS in baseball, but are getting a massive bump in the market with rookie Jared Jones getting the ball. However, Jones’ velocity has dropped over his last few starts, a sign that fatigue can already be settling in for the promising young arm.
I’ll grab Chicago at + money.
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-140)
Taj Bradley is set to make his regular season debut for the Rays. While he showed promise in his rookie season in 2023, striking out 28% of batters, I can’t trust him just yet.
He has talent, but did have a 5.59 ERA with a 46% hard-hit percentage allowed, and now faces an elite Yankees team.
I need to see Bradley show his upside before I back him.
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+120)
Arizona is the best lefty hitting lineup in the big leagues, so I’ll trust the visitors against the Orioles.
Baltimore is starting Cole Irvin, who is striking out only 16% of batters this season, meaning Arizona will have plenty of opportunities to put up runs with pitches inside the strike zone.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (+100)
This is a great matchup for the Twins, who are top five in OPS against left handed pitching, which the team will face in Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has been rock solid this season, but is vulnerable to hard contact with a 13th percentile hard-hit percentage.
Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+130)
The Braves are potent on offense, but the team is trending in the wrong direction against lefty pitching, now only eighth in OPS against southpaws while hitting only .259 after hitting around .300 for the first two weeks.
New York has been rock solid against Braves starter Charlie Morton. Since the beginning of last season, Morton has one quality start in five appearances, allowing four earned runs in three of them.
I’ll take New York as underdogs.
Nationals vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-205)
The Red Sox rank 12th in OPS against left handed pitching, which is impactful against the Nationals, who have Patrick Corbin on the mound Friday night.
Corbin is one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues, posting a 6.45 ERA with an 11th percentile hard-hit percentage.
I see no upset at Fenway Park.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-205)
Ranger Suarez is putting up Cy Young like numbers for the Phillies this season, sporting a 1.72 ERA thus far. Now, the lefty gets to face a Marlins lineup that is 28th in OPS against southpaws this season.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-115)
There is concern for Carlos Carrasco in this matchup, posting a 5.67 ERA this season, but I can’t take the White Sox in a near coin flip matchup against any team in the big leagues, let alone one of the best in the AMerican League.
The White Sox are last in OPS as a unit, flirting with the .600 mark (.601).
Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-135)
The Brewers will turn to lefty Ryan Gasser for his big league debut, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who are hitting .184 against left handed pitching, the worst mark in Major League Baseball.
Rangers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (-185)
Jon Gray returns to Coors Field with a much better team that should keep a handle on the Rockies lineup.
Gray is striking out 25% of batters, the highest mark since 2022 while finding a ton of success with his breaking ball (98th in run value).
Royals vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-125)
Kansas City is far more talented than Los Angeles, and I’m happy to back them as short road favorites against Griffin Canning.
Canning has a 6.69 ERA, and the underlying metrics are a disaster. Canning is striking out a career low 16% of batters mainly because he has no more movement on his pitches, 14th in overall run value.
The Royals are a potent hitting team, 12th in slugging percentage, and can sit on pitches from Canning and put a hurt on him early.
Athletics vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-150)
Bryan Woo is set for his season debut, and gets a good landing spot against the Athletics.
The A’s have power, but are hitting only .221 as a unit. Woo can mitigate the long ball with his fastball (86th percentile in run value) that was 83rd in hard-hit percentage last season.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padre (+150)
The Dodgers are the far better lineup with a Cy Young contender in Tyler Glasnow on the mound, but this price is too good to pass up on San Diego at home.
The Padres are a disciplined unit that is at the top of the bigs in xBA (.271) and can keep pace with this Dodgers lineup on the right night.
Reds vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+130)
Logan Webb’s 2024 profile doesn’t justify this price.
Webb’s velocity is down and he is striking out a career low 18% of batters while upping his walk rate from 3% last year to 6%. He has an ERA of 3.50 with an xERA of 4.73.