Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Keep Backing the Royals as an Underdog)
By Reed Wallach
It's the end of weekend series across Major League Baseball, so who will leave town with wins?
I'm eyeing the consistency of the Kansas City Royals to bounce back after blowing a late lead to the Detroit Tigers in a battle of two of the up and coming teams in the American League Central. Kansas City has been fantastic all year, and will look to get the better of Tarik Skubal and the Tigers.
Here's my write up for that game as well as every game on the Sunday afternoon betting card!
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Guardians vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (+145)
The 18-7 Braves lineup has pop, but the Guardians continue to outperform expectations with a 19-8 record through the first portion of the season. The team will continue to count on strong pitching from an underrated staff, including Sunday’s starter Ben Lively, who has a 91st percentile strikeout rate.
Athletics vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-185)
It’s tough to trust Oakland to take care of a full game with its bullpen ERA, which ranks bottom third in the big leagues.
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (+100)
You won’t get many chances to bet the Dodgers as underdogs, but here’s one of them. Kevin Gausman has been far too shaky this season – 5.57 ERA with a 6.33 xERA and an 18% strikeout rate – to warrant being a favorite against the Dodgers potent lineup.
Royals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+130)
Tarik Skubal figures to be in the Cy Young conversation all year, he has a 1.82 ERA, but the Royals are the more complete roster with the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. – .310/.352/.558 slashes – lurking in the lineup.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+125)
It’s tough to put your money on Patrick Corbin, but if there’s a lineup he can handle its the Marlins, who are hitting below .200 as a team against lefty pitchers this season.
Cardinals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-120)
New York should be able to keep a lid on the Cardinals lineup with Jose Quintana facing a St. Louis lineup that is hitting .198 against southpaws. Further, the Mets should bring Lance Lynn back down to Earth, who is pitching far ahead of his underlying metrics. He has a 2.81 ERA supported by a 4.08 xERA.
Rays vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: White Sox (+155)
Chicago has taken the first two games of its series against the Rays, can it make it a shocking sweep? The numbers indicate its worth a bet at this price, with Erick Fedde on the mound for Chicago.
Fedde has been fantastic all year with a 2.73 ERA, and will look to outduel Zach Littell, who is more of a finesse pitcher (97th breaking pitch run value) but has been prone to allowing hard contact. He has allowed teams to hit the “sweet spot” on 41% of balls in play, per MLB Statcast.
This number is simply too wide not to take another stab at the White Sox.
Yankees vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (+115)
Following the 15-3 drubbing at the hands of the Yankees, I’ll back the Brewers to bounce back in the series finale as a home underdog. I believe there’s some upside with 25-year-old Tobias Myers, who is set to make his second big league start against the Yanks.
Myers pitched five innings of one run ball against the Pirates earlier this week after a strong start to the year in AAA Nashville, sporting a 1.62 ERA in four starts with a high strikeout rate (nearly 12 per nine innings).
Myers will likely go five innings before he passes the ball to the above average Brewers bullpen.
Reds vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+110)
Cincinnati will start Andrew Abbott on Sunday and the lefty will look to control a Rangers lineup that has struggled against left handed pitching all season. Texas is 17th in OPS against lefties, so I’ll trust the budding Abbott (2.60 ERA) to take care of business on Sunday.
Pirates vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-105)
Until Jared Jones slows down, I’ll keep backing him in starts. The rookie has allowed nine runs in five total starts while striking out 39 batters with only four walks. He’ll face an out-matched Giants team on Sunday afternoon and I expect another stellar showing.
Astros vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+175)
With this game being played in Mexico City, I’m going to take the big price on the Rockies. With a total of 16, I believe there is more variance at play and I don’t feel as comfortable laying the big number with the Astros.
Twins vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (-105)
The Twins lineup still gives me pause, hitting only .229 as a unit, against a starter that has pitched as well as Reid Detmers for the Angels. Los Angeles’ starter has pitched to a 2.12 ERA with an 84th percentile strikeout rate, generating plenty of run on his pitches. I’ll back him as a small home underdog.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-135)
Logan Gilbert has been lights out to start the year, pitching to a 1.87 ERA while striking out nearly 28% of the batters he has has faced. He is generating at of swings and misses (69th percentile in whiff percentage) and is in complete control on the mound while walking only 6% of the batters he is facing.
Seattle has won eight of 10 after a slow start to the year, I think the team keeps it rolling on Sunday.
Phillies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-135)
In Taijuan Walker’s first start of the season, I’ll make him prove it to me against a Padres lineup that is top five in walk rate and will put instant pressure on him.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (+115)
Tanner Houck has been stellar to start the season, 1.65 ERA, but a lot of that has been his ability to keep the ball in the strike zone and avoid hard contact. He is walking less than 4% of batters with a 3.03 xERA. On the other side, is a Cubs lineup that is top 10 in OPS that can challenge Houck and hand him some much needed regression.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.