Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Braves vs. Dodgers)
By Reed Wallach
Weekend baseball is here, and we got picks for EVERY game on the Friday night card.
All eyes will be out west as the top two teams in the National League meet when the Braves take on the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and we are looking to fade a particular pitcher in this one.
Keep reading for our favorite bets on every game on the card!
Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (+105)
I’ll side with Joe Ross and the Brewers as small road underdogs on Friday afternoon.
We have more of a sample size on Ross than Cubs’ starter, Hayden Wesneski.
Ross has an ERA of 5.40, but his xERA indicates he has some positive regression, sitting at 3.51. He does a great job of allowing ground balls and forcing soft contact, which is key against a Cubs team that is top 10 in OPS this season.
Meanwhile, Wesneski has only started one game this season, going no further than four innings, and has a below-average bullpen behind him.
Back Ross to string together a quality start and for the Brewers to snag a NL Central win.
Orioles vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-105)
Hunter Greene throws hard, and his starting to showcase some control and the results are following suit.
After struggling to work around hitters and get out of at-bats, Green’s walk rate is now hovering around eight percent while hanging around a 30% strikeout percentage. His ERA has dropped from north of 4.00 over his first two seasons to 3.63 with an xERA of 2.51.
He’s facing a sturdy Orioles lineup, but I’ll grab Cincinnati as home underdogs.
Rockies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-185)
The Pirates had a day to travel back home after being swept by the Oakland A’s, the team will turn to Martin Perez to get the team back on track against another struggling team in the Rockies.
The Rockies are 20th in OPS against lefties and have a bottom-10 bullpen in terms of ERA. I think Pittsburgh gets back on track at home.
Giants vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Giants (+130)
Jordan Hicks has been converted to a starter in San Francisco, and the early returns have been stellar. He has a 1.59 ERA through six starts while walking a career-low seven percent of batters. I’ll continue to play on him on Friday.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Blue Jays (-180)
The Blue Jays are an untrustworthy bunch overall but will have its most trustworthy arm on the mound on Friday in Yusei Kikuchi, who has a sub-3.00 ERA this season and will face a Nationals lineup that is bottom 10 in OPS against lefties.
Toronto gets on track in the nation’s capital.
Mets vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+115)
Tampa Bay can’t hit lefties, 26th in OPS against southpaws, so I’ll trust Jose Quintana to put together a strong outing against the Rays.
Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-160)
The Tigers simply don’t have the lineup to keep up with the Yankees, who are hitting just .227 on the year.
Marcus Stroman should have control of this lineup while Tigers’ starter Reese Olsen struggles to hold up against the Yankees hard-hitting lineup (Olsen is in the 20th percentile in hard-hit percentage).
Angels vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-185)
Cleveland continues to generate wins, 20-10 on the year and will face the out-matched Angels without Mike Trout, who are 11-20 on the year.
Rangers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-115)
The Royals continue to be mispriced, a loaded roster both on the mound and at the plate. The KC offense has been better than Texas in terms of OPS on the year, and has the better pitcher with Brady Singer posting a 2.62 ERA against Michael Lorenzen, who sits at 4.24.
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-105)
Are the Astros going to turn it around? The club continues to be priced like it, but I’ll instead count on George Kirby to get some better results than his 4.18 ERA indicates (2.99 xERA).
Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-110)
The Twins are scorching hot, winners of 10 straight, but I’ll sell high against a Red Sox team that has been just as good all year and has the better pitcher in Tanner Houck (1.60 ERA) on the mound against Chris Paddack (5.89).
White Sox vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cardinals (-275)
Sonny Gray should have little issue against the White Sox.
Marlins vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick; Marlins (+115)
The A’s are the worst hitting team against left-handed pitching this season, .207 as a group, and I can’t justify them being favorites against any team in the big leagues, especially with the Marlins starting a southpaw in Ryan Weathers.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (-110)
While he’s less known, I’ll trust Slade Cecconi to get it done against an underwhelming Padres team, even with Dylan Cease on the mound.
Cecconi is limiting walks, which is the Padres' best path to offense, top five in walk rate, so I’ll side with the home team.
Braves vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Braves (-105)
Two of the best in the bigs go at it in LA, and I’ll side with the road underdogs as Dodgers’ starter Gavin Stone can’t be trusted just yet. He has a concerning walk rate (11%) and isn’t generating enough strikeouts (16%) to lay a price against the best-hitting lineup in baseball in the Braves.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.