Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Cole Regans vs. Orioles)
By Reed Wallach
Saturday's Major League Baseball features a handful of high level matchups, but none will be more exciting than the battle of two of the brightest young clubs in baseball duking it out.
The Orioles will send out prized offseason acquisition Corbin Burnes to shut down the Kansas City Royals hype train that is buoyed by a loaded offense and stud pitching that includes lefty Cole Ragans, Saturday's starter.
We have picks for that matchup as well as every other game on Saturday's big league card, check them out below!
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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-135)
The Yankees rallied to win the series opener on Friday, but this matchup suits the team much better with left hander Nestor Cortes on the mound. Cortes will face a Rays defense that is below the big league average in OPS against southpaws this season.
Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-135)
The Twins will start struggling Bailey Ober this season, who has seen teams generate hard contact against him all season, a sharp increase from prior seasons. Per Statcast, opponents have found the barrel on Ober pitches at 20% rate this season, leading to a 6.57 ERA. However, his other metrics look just fine, he doesn’t walk batters much and has a decent strikeout rate, it’s just power hitting teams that crush him.
However, Detroit has struggled all season at generating hard contact, 26th in OPS. Give me the home starter to find his way against a struggling offense.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (+105)
The Cardinals simply can’t hit left handed pitching this season, .176 in 2024. Milwaukee is set to start DL Hall on Saturday, who will get things get going before handing it to an above average bullpen.
Give me the + price.
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-165)
No team hits lefties better than the Cubs, who have an OPS of .962. The Marlins have had suspect pitching all season, and it won’t get any easier at Wrigley Field on Friday.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (-115)
Following a 17-1 drubbing of San Francisco, I’m going back to Arizona on Saturday in a near-pick ‘em against the Diamondbacks, who will send out ace Zac Gallen, who looks to be in Cy Young form early. He has a 1.64 ERA through his first handful of starts.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (+100)
Mitch Keller has struggled to start this season, positing diminished velocity and an ERA of 4.50. Facing emerging stud Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox, he has an ERA of 0.42 to start the year, I’ll take Boston as a small road underdog.
Astros vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+150)
Ronel Blanco has dazzled to start the year, pitching a no hitter and has a 0.86 ERA through the first month of the season, but I’ll side with the big home underdog Nationals with Trevor Williams, who has pitched to a 3.45 ERA and has upped his strikeout rate after a down year last year to a big league average 22%.
Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-185)
The Mets took the series opener, but I’m not counting on another against the Dodgers vaunted lineup. The Mets will start hard throwing Jose Butto on Saturday, who has a 34% strikeout rate, but also a walk rate nearing double digits. If he hands out too many free bases, he’s going to get tagged early and often.
White Sox vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-320)
The Phillies are massive favorites and for good reason with Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler on the mound against an outmatched White Sox team.
Athletics vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (+140)
In a battle of left handers, I’ll take the big underdog price on the A’s.Alex Wood is off to a poor start as Oakland’s starting pitcher, but there’s positive regression coming with a near-two run drop in terms of xERA from his ERA (8.10 vs. 6.22)
Angels vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+105)
I’ll take the underdog Angels to navigate the Reds pitching staff on Saturday. Starting lefty Patrick Sandoval, I believe the Halos can make this game competitive as the Reds are hitting only .224 against southpaws this season.
Orioles vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+115)
In a battle of two of the top pitchers in baseball this season, I’ll continue to back the underdog Royals. Corbin Burnes hasn’t missed a beat in Baltimore, pitching to a 2.28 ERA, but Cole Ragans has hit the ground running this season.
The lefty has posted a 1.93 ERA and will face an Orioles team that is 14th in OPS when facing lefties.
Rangers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (+130)
The Braves have as dangerous a lineup as any team in the big leagues, but it’s tough to trust Charlie Morton at this stage in his career against a potent Rangers lineup.
Morton is pitching to a 5.29 ERA as his offspeed pitching arsenal continues to wander off. He’ll have his hands full on Saturday against a top 10 hitting lineup in the defending World Series champions Rangers. There’s enough to make me gravitate towards the underdog.
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick Game 2
Pick: Cubs (-205)
Shota Imanaga has been incredible to start his big league career, yet to allow an earned run in 15.1 innings of big league baseball. I’m not taking the Marlins to be the first team to solve him.
Mariners vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-190)
While volatility might be high at Coors Field, Luis Castillo’s pitching style may be wise to it. The Mariners right hander has a barrel rate of just 7% this season, able to force soft contact and keep balls on the ground. Further, he has a walk rate of just 4%, meaning there won’t be a ton of base runners in this one for the Rockies upset bid.
Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-105)
Jose Berrios is a prime regression candidate after a hot start to the year. He has a 1.05 ERA so far, but that’s supported by a 4.43 xERA.
I’ll back the Padres to hand him some hurt at the plate as small home underdogs.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.