Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Kansas City Royals at Home)
By Reed Wallach
Travel day for some, means all-day betting action for us sports bettors!
With plenty of day games, as teams finish series' across Major League Baseball, we have some intriguing matchups, including the Royals and Blue Jays, who continue a four-game series on Wednesday in Kansas City.
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Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (-105)
The D-Backs are small road favorites with Jordan Montgomery set to make his second start of the year. The lefty signed late in the spring so he’s still ramping up, but should continue to work himself into form against a Cardinals lineup that is hitting just .185 this season against left-handed pitching.
Mets vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+110)
Blake Snell missed most of the spring as he waited to sign with a team following his Cy Young season with the Padres, and the rust is still on Snell, who has an 11.57 ERA through three starts.
He’ll face a top 10 Mets lineup in terms of OPS against southpaws, so I’ll take the underdog price.
Orioles vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-130)
Tyler Anderson’s ERA looks nice on paper, 1.42, but that number is overrating his ability. He has an xERA of 4.10 as he has a ninth percentile strikeout percentage on the year, and is ripe to be knocked around by a talented Orioles lineup.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (+120)
Boston faces off against Cleveland and I like the idea of getting a considerable underdog price in a toss-up matchup. Cooper Criswell will make his second start of the year and while he is typically an innings eater, his ability to generate offspeed pitchers (89th percentile in run value) can slow down this Guardians lineup.
Phillies vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-115)
Nick Lodolo is one of the bright pitchers in the National League and his Statcast profile is tantalizing to start this season. He has a strikeout rate in the 92nd percentile and is generating a ton of soft contact, 79th percentile in terms of barrel percentage allowed.
He’ll face a potent Phillies lineup, but I’m going to trust the home team in a toss up.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-105)
The Brewers are hitting only .192 against lefties, and while lefty Josh Fleming is going to stand as an opener, I’m going to trust the Pirates bullpen that is above average this season (3.87 ERA).
Dodgers vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-185)
Anytime the Dodgers are below -200 against a sub-.500 team that’s in a rebuild, I’m eager to back Los Angeles.
Tigers vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (-105)
Jack Flaherty has been rock solid with the Tigers, even if his numbers don’t jump off the page.
He has a 4.44 ERA, but he has a 3.83 xERA with an 81st percentile strikeout rate. I’ll take a stab at him against a Rays lineup that is 24th in OPS on the year.
Athletics vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-225)
Not interested in fading the Yankees with a lowly Athletics team.
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Braves (-230)
Sixto Sanchez will start for the Marlins as an opener, which will pave the way for the Marlins poor bullpen that is bottom 10 in ERA allowed. While it may not be appetizing to lay a big number with the Braves, the lineup is too potent and will find answers.
Astros vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-115)
Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs, and I like taking the veteran who is making his second start of the year. While Steve Arrighetti is due some positive regression as soon as Wednesday night, the team’s third prospect hasn’t shown the requisite control to be trusted to outduel a strong Cubs lineup.
White Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: White Sox (+165)
The White Sox are terrible, 3-20 on the year, but at least have one of its promising pitchers on the mound in lefty Garrett Crochet. Minnesota is 25th in OPS against lefties on the season and can’t be trusted at a big number.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+105)
The Royals are 10-5 at home this season and continue to be disrespected in the market. The team will face rookie Yariel Rodriguez, who has shined in his first two starts, striking out 40% of batters with a 2.35 ERA, but has an xERA of 6.57.
Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (+100)
Jon Gray has been concerning to start the year, posting a 3.15 ERA that is clouded with smoke. He has a 5.90 xERA and is walking more than 11% of batters. I’ll fade him as a home favorite.
Padres vs. RoRockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-160)
The Padres get on base at a high clip against lefties, top five in walk rate, which should pressure on Ty Blach and the Rockies poor bullpen.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.